We are past the halfway point of the 2024-25 season, and once again, we are seeing a decline in the number of sci-fi and fantasy shows running on linear channels and streaming platforms. This should not come as a surprise, though, as the number has been dropping for the past few years, and Peak TV has allegedly come to an end. But as the number of scripted options continues to dwindle, what does this mean for genre television?
Looking back at the numbers, the 2021-22 season delivered a whopping 111 premieres for new and returning sci-fi and fantasy shows across broadcast networks, cable channels, and streaming services. That number dipped to 100 in the 2022-23 season, though at the time, this was attributed to production delays caused by COVID-related stoppages. However, the decline continued into the 2023-24 season, driven in part by industry strikes and the realization that Peak TV had, indeed, peaked, prompting many networks and platforms to scale back their scripted programming.
Now, in the 2024-25 season, there have been just 45 sci-fi and fantasy show premieres through February (with no more scheduled for the month). That’s down from the 50 premieres we saw at the same point last year, and there are not many confirmed for the coming months. If I make a generous projection based on the premieres we saw over the last five months of the season dating back to 2021-22, I estimate a total of 76 shows—down 14% from last year.
Breaking the numbers down further, we see fewer and fewer scripted sci-fi TV shows on broadcast networks and basic cable channels. Broadcast accounted for 16% of genre entries back in the 2021-22 season (when The CW was still under its previous regime) but is currently down to just 6%, with no additional premieres currently scheduled. Basic cable has declined slightly in percentage (from 14% to 10%), but the drop in total show count is more striking—15 in the 2021-22 season versus only 5 scheduled through April of this year, with little more in the queue. Premium cable has remained relatively stable, aside from the strike and COVID-impacted 2023-24 season. Meanwhile, streaming continues to increase as a percentage of total shows (from 66% to 79%), though the actual number of streaming premieres appears to be down this year, with only 38 shows scheduled through April.
Does this mean that sci-fi TV is on the way out? Of course not! The genre has had a steady presence on television since 1949, and that won’t be changing anytime soon. The reality is that scripted programming in general is slowing down as the industry experiences a market correction from the Peak TV boom years. Whether this will result in a full-on bursting of the bubble remains to be seen. But for now, linear and digital channels are reassessing their strategies, cutting back on spending, and determining the best path forward.
And as for my current projection of 76 sci fi and fantasy shows for the 2024-25 season, that is still quite a lot and more than any one person can keep up with unless watching sci fi TV is a full-time job for them (and it will require overtime). If you go back to the 1980s and earlier, you’d be lucky to get that many genre shows across an entire decade! So, 76 in a single year is still a notable haul.
The reality is that we will likely see fewer mega-budget productions like The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power, The 3 Body Problem, The Mandalorian, and The Sandman. (In fact, The Sandman will be ending with its upcoming second season.) However, genre TV doesn’t require massive budgets to succeed—especially with today’s technology. And while we may see an increase in cheaper productions, there should still be quality shows in the mix, and big-budget spectacles will continue to appear from time to time.
I had expected the cancellation rate of sci-fi TV shows to increase in this environment, but it has not yet risen as much as I thought it would. So far, the current season has seen 49% of shows renewed versus 28% canceled or ending, with eleven shows still awaiting word on their fates. In the 2023-24 season, 49% were renewed versus 45% canceled or ending, with five shows left On the Bubble. (You can see the breakdown of these numbers on our Cancellation Watch page.) So, cancellations have not yet outpaced renewals, though if the Peak TV bubble fully bursts, that could change. For now, sci-fi TV is holding steady, even if the total number of shows has decreased.
I will be diving deeper into these numbers over the next few weeks and months, while also examining the television landscape to identify the best platforms for sci-fi TV shows in the post-Peak TV era, so be sure to stay tuned for that.
Keep up with the status updates of all the currently airing sci fi and fantasy shows with our Cancellation Watch posts. And be sure to follow us on social media for breaking news and updates: Twitter | Facebook | Mastodon | Blue Sky.
Follow our Sci Fi TV Schedule for all the currently airing and upcoming sci fi and fantasy television shows, and you can see the premieres for all the upcoming genre entries at this link.
