I have been warning for a while that the Peak TV Bubble is going to burst at some point or at least have a notable market correction, and we have seen signs of the latter this past year. Two reports have been released, by Ampere Analysis and Luminate, and these have confirmed a major slowdown in the output of original content. 2023 logged 481 scripted shows which is down from 2021 and 2022 (633 for each of those years), and even 2020, which was impacted by COVID-19, logged 510 scripted shows (note that they track shows slightly differently than the chart in the header). The recent downturn is blamed in part on the writers’ and actors’ strikes that happened last year, and the current thinking is that the decline will continue.
The fact is that since Peak TV began back around 2011, the output of scripted content increased pretty much every year up to the point that it was just not possible for audiences to keep up with all the shows out there and it became harder and harder for each new entry to compete. For the past few years, I have been logging a hundred or more sci fi and fantasy shows airing or streaming each year, with many of those getting lost in the mix. (If you want to stay informed, though, you can keep up with premiere dates at this link). The various platforms have also been throwing millions and millions of dollars at these productions trying to make them stand out but there are only so many eyes out there to tune in and a limited number of hours in the day. The glut of programming has to take its toll, and we are starting to see clear signs of that now.
For the 2021-22 season, I logged 112 sci fi and fantasy premieres across U.S.-based linear networks and streaming services. For the 2022-23 season, that dropped to 100, and through May of this year I have only tracked 52 so far (the season goes from August to July). There will be more premieres for the current season, but it certainly looks like the total will be well below 100. And you can see from the following chart that the number of shows premiering each month has been less year-over-year with just a few exceptions.
It is likely that production will pick up in the 2024-25 season, but I expect it to be nowhere near prior levels. The linear networks have reduced their scripted output in favor of reality and competition shows as well as sports, and many of the basic cable channels have completely bowed out of the game. The streaming services are going through cost-cutting measures and some may end up closing their doors or merging with other streamers. So the race to get as much scripted programming out as possible certainly seems to be over, and we will have to see how long the culling of content will continue.
Surprisingly, there have not been many cancellations of sci fi and fantasy entries so far in the 2023-24 season with only six cancelled and ending shows vs. fourteen renewals. But I do expect more shows to fall in the coming months, and probably more beloved entries along the lines of Raised by Wolves, Warrior Nun, and Lockwood & Co. I also expect to see less in the way of new genre entries getting the greenlight. I will continue to track the impact of the Peak TV Crunch in the coming months and will be putting out scorecards looking at how well sci fi has fared on all of the major venues during the scripted programming boom. Be sure to stay tuned to this site for updates and breaking news, and you can keep track of the status of all of this season’s shows at our Cancellation Watch Page.
Be sure to follow the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for breaking news and updates. And for the latest news and discussions on sci fi and fantasy television, follow r/SciFiTV
Follow our Sci Fi TV Schedule for all the currently airing and upcoming sci fi and fantasy television shows, and you can see the premieres for all the upcoming genre entries at this link.
