Peak TV Crunch: At What Point Will Netflix’s Excesses Take Their Toll?

Netflix pretty much kicked off the trend of scripted originals on the streaming services, starting with the co-production Lilyhammer in 2012 then moving on to exclusives like House of Cards and Orange Is the New Black. And as more streamers entered the scripted game, Netflix decided that it wanted to be the leader, jumping to the front in output and also pumping large amounts of money into its shows. During the first five to six years that it was producing scripted content, the streamer tended to support its shows, even if they would rarely go longer than three to four seasons. But Netflix has gone through some changes, and over the past five years or so, cancellations have become the norm as it churns through originals looking for the next big hit like Stranger Things or The Witcher. In addition, the streamer has continued to ramp up the budgets on many of its shows making it hard to justify keeping them around if they do not draw large audiences right out of the gates. These excesses will eventually take their toll as Peak TV nears the bursting of the bubble, and Netflix could find itself dethroned from its place as market leader.

How Much Money Is Too Much?

As Peak TV has taken the scripted programming competition to fevered levels, the various venues have continued to pump more and more money into their productions to make them stand out. Netflix has been one of the leaders in this area, easily shelling out $10 million an episode and more. (Stranger Things Season 4 allegedly cost $30 million per episode.) And while this does make for slick productions, the streamer can only take this so far before the lavish spending starts to take its toll. Netflix may currently be the largest streaming service, but it does not have unlimited funds. Companies like Amazon and Apple can offset their costs (to an extent) across the balance sheets of other parts of their businesses, but Netflix’s primary revenue is from subscriptions (and to an extent product placement), with that money paying all the bills. And actions like lashing out against its own subscribers for password sharing likely provides very little in the way of additional revenue while bringing a lot in the way of ill will and negative press.

The fact that Netflix has been quick to cancel some of its high-dollar productions has worked against the streamer as well. Expensive and high-profile shows like Jupiter’s Legacy, Cowboy Bebop, Resident Evil, and 1899 were quickly cancelled (despite strong viewership), making Netflix seem like a hostile environment for scripted programming these days. The streamer invests a lot of money in shows like these but then sets very high expectations which they did not match shortly after their premieres. Add in fan-favorites like Warrior Nun, Fate: The Winx Saga, The OA, Lockwood & Co., and more getting cut short, and it is easy to see viewers shying away from Netflix originals because there is little reason to believe that they will stick around for very long.

How Often Does Netflix Cancel Its Shows?

During the first five to six years that Netflix was producing scripted originals, the streamer tended to be supportive of its shows. Several ended after their second season and most of the rest capped out at the three-to-four season range. But still, over half of the Netflix originals would make it to a third year or so with the final season announced in advance so that the creative team could wrap up the storylines. Through the 2017-18 season, only 14% of the streamer’s scripted shows were cancelled after one season (that number does not include mini-series). That increases to 47% when you look at those that ended or were cancelled after two seasons. Since the 2018-19 season, 51% have been cancelled after one season and that increases to 63% by the second season mark.

As for sci fi and fantasy shows, through the 2017-18 season, only 5% were cancelled after one season and 43% after two seasons. But over the past five years, that has jumped up to 58% getting cancelled after one season and 73% by the second year, quite a significant increase. With that sort of record, why would sci fi fans invest themselves in Netflix productions? The cancellation rate is similar if not worse than what we have seen from the broadcast networks over that time. And while Netflix originals certainly look pretty, and some do deliver on the quality, far too many of them leave the viewers hanging because they did meet lofty expectations and company execs quickly turned their attention to the next new shiny object to see if that will turn into the next Stranger Things or The Witcher. (Add to this the fact that Netflix has mismanaged that latter property which could lead to an earlier-than-expected demise for that one.)  As the Peak TV bubble comes closer to bursting, the streamer will certainly start to feel some pain from the frequent cancellations and high spending as well as the backlash against its own subscribers.

A Look at the Sci Fi and Fantasy Shows on Netflix

Since the 2018-19 season, Netflix has put out a staggering 69 English-language sci fi and fantasy shows targeted primarily to the U.S. market.  (I am not tackling the foreign productions here as that would get far too unwieldy.) But of the 65 that were not mini-series, only ten are still going. And of the ones that were cancelled or ended, four seasons were the most they produced. 42 were cancelled after one season proving that the streamer is quick to pull the plug on its originals (though shows like Manifest, which were continuations, only had one season planned).

Following is the list of sci fi and fantasy shows that have debuted on Netflix since the 2018-19 season. For shows that have been renewed, the upcoming season is included in the count. For continuations like Manifest and Lucifer, only the seasons that were exclusive to Netflix are included.

Be sure to follow the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site  for breaking news and updates. And for the latest news and discussions on sci fi and fantasy television, follow r/SciFiTV

Follow our Sci Fi TV Schedule for all the currently airing and upcoming sci fi and fantasy television shows, and you can see the premieres for all the upcoming genre entries at this link.