Ted Sarandos Claims Netflix Does Not Cancel “Successful” Shows, Let’s Put That to the Test

Netflix has been cancelling shows left and right over the past year and more and it has been taking a lot of heat for it lately. In an attempt to divert negative attention away from the company, CEO Ted Sarandos made the following claims related to the cancellations in an interview with Bloomberg:

We have never canceled a successful show. A lot of these shows were well-intended but talk to a very small audience on a very big budget. The key to it is you have to be able to talk to a small audience on a small budget and a large audience at a large budget. If you do that well, you can do that forever.

But sorry, Ted. I’m not convinced.  Nor are many of the people out there directing their ire towards Netflix while trying to save shows that were cancelled by short-sighted executives who seem to have developed a god complex ever since Netflix found itself at the top of the heap among the streaming services.  Mr. Sarandos claims that they have never cancelled a “successful” show and that the ones that did get the axe had a “very small audience”. Well, let’s just put that to the test with a few examples.

I went back and looked at the data from the Netflix Top 10 which I have been compiling since September 2021. Over that time, looking at the charts for English Language and Non-English Language shows (both originals and acquired), I determined that among those that made it into the Top 10, a season of a show streaming on Netflix (they count each season separately) has averaged 4.3 weeks in the charts and 30.1 million hours of viewing per week. Narrowing that to the Top 5, a season has averaged 2.6 weeks there along with 46.4 million hours of viewing per week.  Both originals and acquisitions are counted because Netflix does pay a healthy sum for encore runs of shows like The Walking Dead, NCIS, Seinfeld, and more.

This is the Top 10 and Top 5 that I am measuring, so the shows which had a season landing there should count among the top performers since Netflix has quite a number of series in its catalogue. And the shows that were cancelled you would expect to perform well below the averages I tallied above because they were not “successful” and had a “very small audience”, right? Let’s test that with a few examples.

First up, let’s look at one of the most recent cancellations: the historical mystery 1899. That show spent five weeks in the Top 10, four weeks in the Top 5 (three weeks at Number 2) and averaged 51.4 million hours per week overall while in the Top 10 and 59.8 million hours per week while in the Top 5. All of those numbers are higher than the average performance of Netflix shows in the Top 10 and Top 5. Sure seems like a successful run to me, Ted. And the show had a notably larger audience than the average of your other top performers. Sure, this one was expensive to produce, but the numbers seem to justify the cost.

Next up, let’s take a look at Fate: The Winx Saga which was cancelled in Fall. The second season of that show spent five weeks in the Top 10 and three weeks in the Top 5 averaging 32.2 million hours of viewing per week while in the Top 10 and 45.4 million hours per week while in the Top 5. Those performance stats are at or above the levels of other top performers and that sure seems like another successful run. But this one was not given the expected third-season renewal or a chance to wrap up its storylines.  What’s up with that, Ted?

Then there was Archive 81 which the streamer cancelled after what seemed like a decent run in early 2022. It spent three weeks in the Top 10 and two in the Top 5 and averaged 43.2 million hours per week overall and 53.6 million hours per week while in the Top 5. It also posted a one-week high of 70.1 million hours. Sure, it did not match up to the average top-of-the-top performers, but you can’t easily call it a dud of a show. Especially considering that it came out of nowhere and received almost no promotion (like most of Netflix’s originals).

What about The Midnight Club, which came from the same guys that did pretty right by Netflix with The Haunting of Hill House and The Haunting of Bly Manor? That show spent three straight weeks in the Top 5 before dropping out of the charts and it averaged 30.1 million hours of viewing per week. It may not have been the highest performer, but it still did pretty well for a show that the streamer did next to nothing to promote. And it certainly did not have a budget anywhere near that of The Sandman or Wednesday. Perhaps a better team of executives would have given it more of a chance?

And then there is Warrior Nun, dearly beloved by millions of bans across the globe. (Just type #SaveWarriorNun into a Twitter search for proof.) Ted, was there a reason that you gave this show absolutely no promotion when it returned for its second season? Word is the first season drew very good viewership (the Netflix Top 10 was not around then), so it seems like you might have wanted to support a well-loved show like that. And despite the lack of promotion, it still spent three weeks in the Top 10 and one in the Top 5, averaging 22.0 million hours per week overall. That may be on the lower side of your top performers, but what do you expect when people don’t even know the show is airing?

So after five examples, I don’t think your comments hold much weight, Mr. Sarandos.  Some of the cancelled shows may not have been among the absolute best performers, but they still did pretty well. How many more examples will it take to make you realize that the cancellations made by you and the other Netflix execs are ill-advised? And if you consider these shows not to be “successful” and to have a “very small audience”, why not sell off the properties to other venues who want them and will support them? Doesn’t seem like you are losing much.

Instead, will you keep blaming your loss of subscribers on things like password sharing and continue to punish your customers while ignoring that your misguided corporate decrees are driving people away? It is easy to holler “Off With Their Heads!” and cancel shows and customers while you are king of the streaming heap. But kings who enrage their subjects on a regular basis may find their reign cut short.

I know you will make claims about the importance of the completion rate and how that was low for these shows. But this creates an unsustainable model for Netflix because the window for the completion rate is too narrow. The whole point of streaming is that shows are “On Demand” and people can watch them whenever they want. Because they didn’t finish quick enough should not necessarily be a reason to cancel the show, otherwise the whole On Demand aspect of streaming is pointless.

Mr. Saranados, it may be time to reconsider what is “successful” and what counts as a “very small audience” because the Peak TV bubble is close to bursting and that could go very badly for the streaming services that have failed to support their own shows and have turned on their own customers.

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