Peak TV has been driving up the number of scripted originals on television for years now, reaching a new high in 2022 with 559 according to the latest report. But I have been saying for some time that the bubble will burst eventually and we have been seeing signs of that over the past six months. The turmoil at HBO Max following the merger of Warner Bros. and Discovery led to multiple cancellations as well as shows getting yanked from the service. There have been behind-the-scenes shakeups at AMC Networks which have led to Moonhaven and Pantheon getting axed despite second-season renewals. There is word that Disney is on the verge of shaking things up after the recent change at CEO. And the Netflix Red Queen has been working overtime issuing her “Off With Their Heads!” verdict leading to multiple cancellations.
All of this suggests that more shows will fall as we head into the new year, and I will be making a change to the Cancellation Watch Page to better track the cancellations and renewals throughout the season and into the coming years. Instead of listing all shows, the page will focus on the current season showing what has debuted so far as well as the shows that are set with a pretty firm premiere window for the current year. Following are the statuses that I will be tracking:
Cancelled: A show that has had an official cancellation announcement in the current season or that appears to have been silently cancelled by its network.
Ending: A show that had its final season announced in advance or that wrapped up its storylines in the current season and will not be returning.
On the Bubble: A show that has a 50/50 chance of returning or less based on current estimates.
Renewal Possible: A show that appears to be headed to another season or that currently has no evidence to suggest that it is in danger of cancellation.
Returning: A show that is returning for a new season and that has a premiere window set for the current year.
Upcoming: A new show that has a premiere window for the current season.
Along with the show list, I will be including a Cancellation/Renewal Score that looks at the shows in the following statuses: Cancelled, Ending, On the Bubble, Renewal Possible, and Renewed. Following are the numbers for the 2022-23 season as of this writing.
| Show Count | 62 | ||
| Cancelled | 9 | 14.5% | 30.6% |
| Ending | 10 | 16.1% | |
| On the Bubble | 8 | 12.9% | |
| Renewal Possible | 17 | 27.4% | |
| Renewed | 18 | 29.0% |
The Ending stat includes those that have not aired yet but that will wrap up this season like The Flash and Fear the Walking Dead. When you combine that with the Cancelled shows, it totals to 30.6% of the tracked shows from this season which is higher than the 29% that have been renewed so far. The good news is that only 13% are On the Bubble at the moment with 27% in the Renewal Possible category, but that will likely shift as the season progresses.
The Cancellation/Renewal Score will give a quick and easy way to track cancelled/ending shows vs. renewed throughout the year. My prediction at this point is that the former category will continue to outpace the latter, and the margin may increase by season end. These numbers will be available on the Cancellation Watch Page, and I will have the prior season posted there as well for comparison. Here is how things wrapped up for the 2021-22 season, with just a few shows still waiting for word on their fates:
| Show Count | 109 | ||
| Cancelled | 30 | 27.5% | 43.1% |
| Ending | 17 | 15.6% | |
| On the Bubble | 5 | 4.6% | |
| Renewal Possible | 6 | 5.5% | |
| Renewed | 51 | 46.8% |
As you can see, the renewals out-paced the cancelled/ending shows last year 46.8% vs. 43.1%, though not by a large margin. I expect that to go the other way this year as the current numbers suggest. I also expect the number of genre entries airing/streaming each season to start going down over the next few years.
For those interested, below is the Cancellation/Renewal Score for Netflix so far this season. As expected the numbers look pretty bad.
Netflix 2022-23 Sci Fi/Fantasy Shows:
| Show Count | 15 | ||
| Cancelled | 6 | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Ending | 3 | 20.0% | |
| On the Bubble | 3 | 20.0% | |
| Renewal Possible | 0 | 0.0% | |
| Renewed | 3 | 20.0% |
Peak TV has dominated the airwaves for the past ten-plus years, but we have always known that the numbers can’t keep going up. Whether we will experience a market correction that sees the number drop marginally or if a crash is on the way is uncertain at this point. But I have tweaked the Cancellation Watch Page to better track the situation, so be sure to check back on a regular basis. I will also be posting updates to the numbers in my weekly Cancellation Watch posts. Those usually come out on Tuesdays, but sometimes are delayed to Wednesday if a holiday pushes back the ratings numbers (like this week). Stay tuned, because the Peak TV Crunch could quickly turn into a Crash and it could impact many of the sci fi and fantasy shows you are watching.
SciFiTVSite.com: Follow our Sci Fi TV Schedule for all the currently airing and upcoming sci fi and fantasy television shows, and you can see the premieres for all the upcoming genre entries at this link.
Just wanted to say thank you for all your work. It is very helpful in keeping track of the shows and your breakdowns add a layer to understand the industry we are dealing with.
👍☮️
Thank you for tuning in and for the kind words. Please spread the word about the site so that others can enjoy it as well!