Peak TV continues to grow the number of scripted original shows available on television, but we are starting to see signs that this unprecedented ten-year expansion of development just may have peaked. The term was coined by FX Networks chief John Landgraf and refers to the explosion of scripted programming on the broadcast networks, cable channels, and streaming services. The number of shows available has seen steady growth since 2012 with just one dip in 2020 which was largely fueled by pandemic-related shutdowns. Last year set another record with 559 shows, and the general impression seemed to be that it would not slow down any time soon.
But there is an iron economic law often forgotten by economists and business leaders when the money is rolling in: The numbers can’t go up forever.
I have been saying for a while that the bubble must burst at some point or there must at least be a market correction, but that hasn’t proven true yet as the networks and streaming services keep throwing ever more money at scripted production. However, this past week something happened that could be a leading indicator of a crash on the horizon.
Netflix lost subscribers for the first time in ten years. Only a net of two hundred thousand which is a fraction of a percent of their subscribers, but that along with future projections was enough to push network execs into panic mode. They gutted their animation group, cancelling the planned adaptation of Jeff Smith’s Bone. They slashed many of their Indian productions because the subscriber drop was particularly high in that country. They cancelled the highly-watched Raising Dion after two seasons, and the CFO has suggested a significant cutback in spending on scripted programming could follow. And all this because they lost 0.009% of their subscribers. And in the process they blamed the loss on their subscribers for password sharing while ignoring the impact of their high cancellation rate and constant churn of new shows. Screenrant also points outs that the streamer does a poor job of marketing its own originals.
And Netflix is not the only network that is cutting back on its scripted originals. The newly merged Warner Bros. Discovery has decided to make a major change with the cable networks TBS and TNT that it owns by pulling off all scripted programming. That has an impact on the sci fi show Snowpiercer which is set to return for a fourth season on TNT. If that does still go forward, it will likely be the show’s last unless it shifts over to HBO Max.
But the drop in scripted shows on the linear networks is not something new. Even while the total number of shows has been increasing, the output from the broadcast networks and cable channels has been on the downswing. They have shifted more to reality and games shows as well as sports to fill up their schedule, and I expect that to continue as they find it hard to compete with the high-dollar productions put out by the streamers. The cable channels in particular have shied away from scripted programming with several beyond TBS and TNT backing out of that arena like A&E and The History Channel.
The newer streaming services like HBO Max, Disney+, Apple TV+, and Paramount+ have been filling in the gap as the output from the linear networks has decreased. But how long can they sustain that? With Netflix having upped the bar the last few years by pouring millions of dollars into productions like Stranger Things and The Witcher, the cost of competing continues to grow. And with HBO throwing away 30 million on a Game of Thrones spin-off that will never happen, this is all going to take its toll at some point.
So how will this impact sci fi and fantasy television? If you ask me, the drop in the number of original productions could actually be a good thing. There are currently over one hundred genre entries airing, returning, or set to hit the schedule in the next few months. That’s a lot of programming and it would be more than the equivalent of a full-time job to watch every episode. We have a glut of programming out there, and it is certainly time to start trimming that back down.
Sadly, that will lead to some shows getting cancelled too soon (though Netflix was already specializing in that area) and also some promising upcoming projects could get scrapped. But the fact is that there is just too darn much television and I am guessing we are close to–if not over–market saturation. And with Netflix in slash and burn mode, that may get some of the other networks to reconsider their strategy. With less pressure from the market leader–which Netflix has been–the competition may ease off. And this could start a snowball effect that finally turns the tide on Peak TV. Netflix itself may create a snowball effect by upping its cancellations and punishing subscribers.
I have been saying for quite some time that the Peak TV glut will take its toll and that iron economic law will rear its ugly head leading to the number of scripted originals taking a notable downward turn. I will continue to track this in the coming months, so keep an eye out for my analysis and predictions and for how this will impact the current and upcoming sci fi TV shows.
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