The CW is currently in negotiatons for a new buyer to take a majority stake in the network and that will certianly impact the direction of its programing in the coming years. Several shows were renewed yesterday, which included genre entries The Flash, Superman & Lois, Nancy Drew, Kung Fu, and Riverdale, but several more are awaiting word on their fate. I previously took a look at the network’s entire slate of genre programming to consider how likely each show was to get renewed, and now I am revisiting that below for the shows that have not yet received a greenlight for another season. This is ranked by those least likely to get cancelled to those most likely to find themselves off the network’s schedule in the coming year.
Stargirl
(Returning for 3rd Season, Renewal Possible): This Summer Arrow-verse series has continued to perform well since The CW brought it over from the now-defunct DC Universe streaming service. Even if the new owners decide they want to cut that franchise down to only two or three entries, this one may still survive if it remains on the Summer slate because it has performed well during that typically low-viewership time of year. I see this one sticking around for at least a couple more years if not longer or shifting to HBO Max if the new owners decide not to renew it for a fourth year.
Legacies
(Airing 4th Season, Renewal Possible): The numbers for this spin-off from The Originals (which was a spin-off from Vampire Diaries) have been down this season, but I expect it to be back for at least one more year. It will be above the sixty episode mark at the end of the season and Warner Bros. will want it to get past the eighty episode threshold to make it more attractive to the syndication market (where shows really turn a profit). It could wrap up with its fifth season, but I don’t expect this one to face cancellation this year.
Charmed
(Airing 4th Season, Renewal Possible): The same-day ratings for this supernatural drama have not been great the last couple of seasons, but it has been plugging up a low-viewership slot on Fridays and it makes up some slack with digital viewing. Because the upcoming fourth season will be only thirteen episodes, it will come up short of the threshold that the syndication market prefers for an encore run. For that reason, I am guessing it will return for a fifth season to get it to a more syndication-friendly episode count, or perhaps shift to Paramount+ to wrap up its run.
Legends of Tomorrow
(Completed 7th Season, Renewal Possible): I previously considered this show to be almost a sure thing for renewal, but that was before it wrapped up its seventh season with somewhat of a final note. Its showrunner has indicated that it is not done yet and as a team up series (that just lost some of its teammembers) it can pickup characters from other Arrow-verse shows. Its ratings have been up year-over-year–one of the few shows that can say that–and this one has become somewhat of a fan-favorite. I still believe it has a chance of returning, but if not it at least had the opportunity to wrap up many of its storylines.
Naomi
(Airing 1st Season, Toss Up): This is not the season to be a new Arrow-verse entry on The CW, especially if it is not tearing it up in the ratings. The numbers for Naomi have been decent so far as it has mostly performed at or above the network average, but it doesn’t quite count as a hit (and its ratings have slipped just recently). In a normal year, this one would almost certainly get a second season renewal. But if the new owners are not all-in on the Arrow-verse and want to clear some timeslots for other shows, they may decide to pass on a second year.
Roswell New Mexico
(Returning for 4th Season, Toss Up): This show has never drawn strong same-day ratings for The CW (though it does very well in digital viewing) and its first three seasons have consisted of thirteen episodes each with the fourth likely following that pattern as well. That will put it a good thirty episodes away from what the syndication market prefers for an encore run, and it could end at that point. It’s also possible that this one could shift over to HBO Max (which is owned by Warner Bros.) or Netflix (which is currently streaming prior seasons) for another year or two if the studio decides to keep it going.
Batwoman
(Completed 3rd Season, On the Bubble): This is another show that wrapped up its current season as if it may not be returning. Batwoman has never been one of the higher-rated Arrow-verse shows, and it could find itself as a casualty if that franchise goes through a shake up under the new owners. Even though it has reached its third season, all three of those seasons have been cut short due to the pandemic’s impact on television production. So even if it gets a full order of twenty-two eps for a fourth season, it will be short of the episode count that the syndication market prefers for an encore run. So it is possible that the new owners could decide to cut bait on this one, especially if they are trimming the number of superhero shows from the schedule.
4400
(Completed 1st Season, On the Bubble): Back in Fall when this show debuted, it was performing quite well for The CW. Its numbers slacked off a bit towards the end of Fall, but it was still one of the network’s better-rated shows. When it returned at Mid-Season, though, its numbers dropped off notably and they remained low through the remainder of its first season run. The buzz for this reboot has not been very good so far, so new owners would likely be less than enthusiastic about keeping this one going into a second year.
Two Sentence Horror Stories
(Completed 3rd Season, On the Bubble): This acquisition was picked up to fill out a slot on the schedule during the Summer months with original programming. It got shifted to the regular season due to the pandemic-related delays, and it barely registered in the ratings this year (in part because it is in the highly-competitive Sunday 9 PM EST timeslot). It is an inexpensive show that plugs up an hour on the schedule, so new owners might consider keeping it around and moving it to a low-viewership timeslot. But if they have something they believe is better to replace it, then it could be gone.
Tom Swift
(Upcoming, Possibly Dead on Arrival): Even before the announcement of the sale, this show’s prospects were not very good. While The CW has typically renewed most of its shows throughout the year, it usually has a sacrificial lamb that it sends to the Nieslen gods each season. And that is typically a new show that debuts late in Spring. Tom Swift drew that straw this year which doesn’t bode well. The fact that low-rated Nancy Drew did get renewed could help it, though, since this is a spin-off from that show. Perhaps The CW has an international syndication deal similar to what it has with the Dynasty reboot that could keep this franchise going. But at this point I am still considering the renewal chances for Tom Swift to be pretty low.
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