Which CW Shows Could Be Cancelled if the Network Is Sold?

Right about this time every year The CW usually issues a blanket renewal statement that includes most if not all of its Fall shows as well as some of its Spring shows.  The cancellation rate for the network has been the lowest among the broadcast nets and among the lowest across all of the television channels and streaming services, but that could be changing.  Currently ViacomCBS and Warner Bros. have joint ownership of the network, but they are considering selling a majority stake.  Both companies would likely still be involved with The CW after the sale, but the new partner would be running the show and would likely want to put its own stamp on the network.

The CW has acted as a feeder network for shows from both studios that own it, and while the network itself has never been profitable, it has produced some very lucrative and long-running television franchises such as the Arrow-verse shows, Vampire Diaries and its spin-offs, Supernatural (which started on The WB), Gossip Girls, and more.  A new partner will likely shift the network’s focus to more short-term profits, similar to the model the other broadcast nets follow, and focus more closely on the same-day ratings (The CW has typically made a larger push for digital viewing).  That means less patience with under-performing shows and likely more cancellations each year.

It is hard to make the call on how this would impact the network’s current slate because we don’t know who the buyer is or the terms of the deal (Nexstar Media Group is most interested at this point).  There is still a chance that The CW could do its blanket renewal this year just to have stability in its lineup going into the 2022-23 season.  But they could also hold off on that knowing that the new buyer will want to have some influence on the network’s schedule.  Following is a look at each of The CW’s genre entries and their chances of surviving for another season with a new owner onboard.  This is ranked by those least likely to get cancelled to those most likely to find themselves on the chopping block.

The Flash

(Airing 8th Season, Renewal Likely): The Arrow-verse has been getting long in the tooth and I expected a shakeup with that franchise even without the sale of the network.  It is still popular enough to justify a few timeslots on the schedule, but my guess is that will get trimmed back to three or four shows at most in the next year of so.  The Flash will almost certainly be back next year for a ninth season seeing as Grant Gustin has worked out a deal to continue in the lead role.  But that very well could be its last or perhaps it goes one more season to get that tenth year.  In any case, I expect this one to wrap up in a year or two.

Superman & Lois

(Airing 2nd Season, Renewal Likely): This is currently the top-rated show on The CW and it has helped revitalize the Arrow-verse to an extent.  I expect this one to take the baton from The Flash and become the flagship entry in the franchise (it pretty much already has), and it will likely stick around for several more years.  Even if they did a complete shake up of the Arrow-verse and trimmed it down to only a couple of entries, I would still expect this one to survive (or possible shift to HBO Max).

Legends of Tomorrow

(Airing 7th Season, Renewal Likely): Over the past few seasons, this has typically been one of the lower-rated Arrow-verse entries, but its numbers are up year-over-year (one of the few shows on television that can say that) and it seems to be picking up steam since returning at Mid-Season.  Since this is a team-up series, it can take on characters from shows that have ended, so I expect it to stick around at least one more season and possibly more.  Though don’t be surprised if it gets replaced by a Justice League-type show which was already teased in the Crisis on Infinite Earths event.

Stargirl

(Returning for 3rd Season, Renewal Likely): This Summer Arrow-verse series has continued to perform well since The CW brought it over from the now-defunct DC Universe streaming service.  Even if the new owners decide they want to cut the franchise down to only two or three entries, this one may still survive if it remains on the Summer slate because it has performed well during that typically low-viewership time of year.  I see this one sticking around for at least a couple more years if not longer.

Legacies

(Airing 4th Season, Renewal Likely): The numbers for this spin-off from The Originals (which was a spin-off from Vampire Diaries) have been down this season, but I expect it to be back for at least one more year.  It should be just above the sixty episode mark at the end of the season and Warner Bros. will want it to get past the eighty episode threshold to make it more attractive to the syndication market (where shows really turn a profit).  It could wrap up with its fifth season, but I don’t expect this one to face cancellation this year.

Kung Fu

(Returning for 2nd Season, Renewal Possible): This martial arts drama with a supernatural twist was one of The CW’s better-performing shows in its first season. It is not tied to the Arrow-verse or any of the other shows airing on the network, so it stands on its own merits. If it continues to perform well when it returns for its second season, then consider a third year a good bet for this one.

Charmed

(Returning for 4th Season, Renewal Possible): The same-day ratings for this supernatural drama have not been great the last couple of seasons, but it has been plugging up a low-viewership slot on Fridays and it makes up some slack with digital viewing. Because the upcoming fourth season will be only thirteen episodes, it will come up short of the threshold that the syndication market prefers for an encore run. For that reason, I am guessing it will return for a fifth season to get it to a more syndication-friendly episode count, or perhaps shift to Paramount+ to wrap up its run.

Batwoman

(Airing 3rd Season, Toss Up): This has never been one of the higher-rated Arrow-verse shows, and it could find itself as a casualty if that franchise goes through a shake up.  Even though it has reached its third season, all three of those seasons have been cut short due to the pandemic’s impact on television production.  So even if it gets a full order of twenty-two eps for a fourth season, it will be short of the episode count that the syndication market prefers for an encore run.  So it is possible that this one could end with its current season (and perhaps send Batwoman over to Legends of Tomorrow for a stint on that show).  Current ownership would definitely greenlight a fourth year, but the new bosses may decide to cut bait on the show.

Naomi

(Airing 1st Season, Toss Up): This is not the season to be a new Arrow-verse entry on The CW, especially if it is not tearing it up in the ratings.  The numbers for Naomi have been decent so far as it has performed above the network average, but it doesn’t quite count as a hit.  In a normal year, this one would certainly be included in the blanket renewal statement.  But if the new owners are not all-in on the Arrow-verse and want to clear some timeslots for other shows, they may decide to pass on a second season.

Roswell New Mexico

(Returning for 4th Season, Toss Up): This show has never drawn strong same-day ratings for The CW (though it does very well in digital viewing) and its first three seasons have consisted of thirteen episodes each with the fourth likely following that pattern as well.  That will put it a good thirty episodes away from what the syndication market prefers for an encore run, and it could end at that point.  It’s also possible that this one could shift over to HBO Max (which is owned by Warner Bros.) or Netflix (which is currently streaming prior seasons) for another year or two if the studio decides to keep it going.

Riverdale

(Airing 6th Season, Toss Up): The numbers for this show have been notably down in its sixth year, and that’s not a good thing with new owners coming onboard.  This genre-crossing entry developed a notable fan following early in its run at The CW, but interest in the show has definitely cooled as of late.  It has reached the hundred episode mark, so it will have a life in syndication, and my guess is that Warner Bros. will want to give it some sort of official wrap up to resolve its storylines.  So it could be back for a seventh year, and that could be a shortened season.  Or it could shift to HBO Max or Netflix to wrap up its run.

Nancy Drew

(Completed 3rd Season, On the Bubble): When the season began, I figured that this one was sure to return for a fourth year since it was in the syndication stretch.  But I didn’t realize at that point that its third season would only be thirteen episodes which means it will be over thirty episodes away from the minimum amount preferred by the syndication market.  It has never counted as a hit for The CW and it is currently one of the network’s lowest rated shows, so new owners will not be excited about keeping it on the schedule.  It could shift to Paramount+ (which is owned by ViacomCBS) since it has typically done better in digital viewing.  But my guess is that its days on The CW are close to over.

4400

(Airing 1st Season, On the Bubble): Back in Fall when this show debuted, it was performing quite well for The CW.  Its numbers slacked off a bit towards the end of Fall, but it was still one of the network’s better-rated shows.  When it returned at Mid-Season, though, its numbers dropped off notably and they have remained low.  The buzz for this reboot has not been very good so far, so new owners would likely be less than enthusiastic about keeping this one going into a second season.

Two Sentence Horror Stories

(Airing 3rd Season, On the Bubble): This acquisition was picked up to fill out a slot on the schedule during the Summer months with original programming.  It got shifted to the regular season due to the pandemic-related delays, and it is barely registering in the ratings so far this year (in part because it is in the highly-competitive Sunday 9 PM EST timeslot).  It is an inexpensive show that plugs up an hour on the schedule, so new owners might consider keeping it around and moving it to a low-viewership timeslot.  But if they have something they believe is better that could replace it, then it could be gone.

Tom Swift

(Upcoming, Possibly Dead on Arrival): Even before the announcement of the sale, this show’s prospects were not very good.  While The CW has typically renewed most of its shows throughout the year, it usually has a sacrificial lamb that it sends to the Nieslen gods each season.  And that is typically a new show that debuts late in Spring.  Tom Swift drew that straw this year, and it doesn’t help that it is a spin-off from low-rated Nancy Drew which could be on the way out as well.  Unless this one hits ratings gold out of the gate, consider it pretty much dead on arrival.  And any chances of it moving over to Paramount+ are slim.  At best, fans can hope for Mr. Swift to make another appearance on Nancy Drew, assuming that one survives past the current season.

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