Do Sci Fi TV Shows Get Cancelled More Often Than Others?

Network Scorecard: Scoring the networks based on their history of airing and supporting sci fi and fantasy television shows.

It’s the age-old question: do sci fi shows get cancelled more often than other shows on television? And the general assumption among the sci fi community has always been yes. So I decided to start crunching the numbers while working on my project to determine which networks are more supportive of genre shows and which ones generally shun them. And surprise of surprises, what I found is that sci fi TV shows are not necessarily cancelled more when compared to other scripted television shows. There are some nuances to that, and it does vary from network to network, but the cancellation rate over the past ten years–especially after the first year–is the same if not lower than the other scripted shows out there. (I have looked even further back with similar results, more on that in future posts.)  The fact is that there are a lot of shows on television and a lot of them get cancelled.  Sci fi shows make up a smaller portion of the overall population, so it might seem like they get cancelled more often.  But the numbers show that is not the case.

>ALSO READ: Cancellation Watch Preview for the Fall 2021 Sci Fi and Fantasy TV Shows

The Score: Sci Fi TV Shows DO NOT Get Cancelled More Often than Others

In my process of tallying the network Scorecards, I have looked at new shows debuting on the broadcast networks, the cable channels, the premium cable channels, and the streaming services over the past ten seasons (starting with the 2011-12 season), focusing on those that have had enough sci fi shows to make it worth measuring them. Among the scripted shows that I am considering are those directed at an adult and/or family audience and that would be considered “Prime Time” fare. In other words, kids shows are mostly thrown out (unless they also attract a notable adult audience like Netflix’s Voltron: Legendary Defender), and I am also not considering reality and other non-scripted shows (far too many of those to keep track of). Among the networks that I have produced scorecards for are all the broadcast nets, the basic cable channels AMC, Freeform, FX, Syfy, and TNT, the premium cable channels HBO, Showtime, and Starz, and the streaming channels Amazon, Apple TV+, Disney+, HBO Max, Hulu, Netflix, and Paramount+ (you can find the individual scorecards at this location). Across all of those, following is the summary of the scripted shows over the past ten seasons along with the cancellation rate:

Of the 940 shows tracked, 279 counted as sci fi/fantasy (29.7%).  Of those, 34.8% were cancelled after one season, lower than the overall cancellation rate of 38.3%.  After two seasons, 14.3% of sci fi/fantasy shows were cancelled, just slightly lower than the overall rate of 14.6%.  You see a slight bump in cancellations at the three-season mark with sci fi shows getting cancelled or ending 12.2% of the time vs. 9.1% for all shows.  But a slightly higher percentage of 17.2% of genre entries make it to the fourth season or beyond, compared to 16.9% among the general population.  Active shows not renewed yet are included in the New Show Count column but not in the percentages unless they have made it to the fourth season mark or more.  For example, The CW’s Batwoman is included in the show count but not the percentages yet because it is headed into its third season, but HBO’s Westworld is in the show count and also counted as one that will be making it to the fourth season mark.  Those considered to be mini-series (like HBO’s The Watchmen) are excluded from this analysis since they were not necessarily designed for multi-season runs (but if they get picked up for more seasons like Amazon’s Good Omens, they start counting here).  So you can see that across all of the networks measured, sci fi and fantasy shows have as good of a survival rate if not better than other shows.  But that starts to fluctuate notably when you focus in on specific networks.

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The Broadcast Networks

The Big Four broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC) are generally considered to be a bad landing place for sci fi and fantasy shows. But when you look at all four together, genre entries have had only a slightly lower survival rate compared to the general population of scripted shows airing on those channels.  As the chart below shows, 58.6% of sci fi show get cancelled after one seasons vs. 57.1% of all shows.  The cancellation rate goes up at the two-season mark with 20% coming to an end vs. 15.1% for all shows.  After three seasons it is 7.1% vs. 5.9%, and only 12.9% of genre entries make it to four seasons or more vs. 16% of the general population.  Thus the odds are slightly worse for genre entries on the broadcast networks, though not to the point that you can justify the claim that “all sci fi TV shows” get cancelled by them.  The fact is that the odds are low for any show landing on these channels.  Though on a network by network basis you can see that the survival rate goes down for genre entries on specific channels.  Surprisingly FOX has the lowest cancellation rate after one season over the past ten years, but that jumps up notably at the two-year mark.

The CW should be considered separately, lest it will skew the overall numbers across the broadcast networks.  I call it the “Happy Net” because its executives prefer to renew shows rather than cancel them.  And you can see from the numbers below that only 28% of sci fi and fantasy shows have been cancelled after one season across the past ten years vs. 31.7% of all shows.  Astoundingly, the two and three season marks are at 0% for cancellation of genre entries proving what I have been saying for a while now that if a CW show makes it past its first season it almost always sticks around for at least four years.  And on this network, 52% of genre shows have survived for four seasons or more compared to 48.8% of all shows (good numbers on all accounts).

>ALSO READ: All of the Cancelled and Ending Sci Fi TV Shows from the 2020-21 Season

The Cable Channels

While quite a number of the cable channels have aired scripted sci fi/fantasy shows over the past ten years (even the History Channel got into the game with Project Blue Book), not all of them have produced enough scripted programming to make it worth measuring them.  Below are the cable nets that have put out a substantial number of genre shows or at least some notable entries.  And sci fi/fantasy shows have had a decent survival rate on these networks.  28.6% were cancelled after one season vs. 32.2% of all scripted offerings.  18.4% came to an end after two seasons vs. 19% across the general population.  At the three-season mark, the survival rate dips a bit as 20.4% of sci fi shows are cancelled vs. 13.2% of all shows.  But a slightly higher rate of 28.6% makes it to the fourth season mark or more vs. 27.3% of all shows.  When you look at the numbers network by network, you will see that Syfy–supposedly the home of sci fi and fantasy on television–has the highest cancellation rate among the cable channels scored.  All of its scripted programming counts as genre entries with 40% getting the ax after one season.

>Follow our Cancellation Watch posts for the status of your favorite shows plus updates and breaking news

The Premium Cable Channels

The premium cable channels (the ones you pay extra money for) have not put out a lot in the way of genre programming over the past ten years, but they have had some very notable entries (though Game of Thrones is not counted here because it started in the 2010-11 season).  The survival rate for genre shows has been good across the first two seasons with only 21.4% getting cancelled after one year vs. 22.9% of all shows and 7.1% getting the ax after two seasons vs. 14.6%.  But at the three-season mark it jumps up notably with 42.9% of sci fi/fantasy shows coming to an end vs. 13.5% of all shows, though typically those are generally given the chance to wrap up their storylines (i.e. The Leftovers on HBO and Penny Dreadful on Showtime).  Only 14.3% make it to four seasons or more vs. 19.8% of the general population.

>Keep up with the sci fi and fantasy TV shows airing each week with our Weekly Listings

The Streaming Channels

The streaming channels have dominated genre programming over the past ten years, putting out over 40% of the scripted sci fi and fantasy shows.  And the Big Three streamers (Amazon, Hulu, and Netflix) tend to be a good landing place for genre entries, though they rarely go for more than three to four seasons.  Across those three streamers, the cancellation rate for sci fi TV is slightly lower than the general population through the three-year mark as the chart below indicates, though only 8.9% make it to a fourth season vs. 10.7% of all shows.  And if you look at the more recent trend for Netflix shows (as I cover in its scorecard), the cancellation rate has gone up the last few years.

The newer streaming channels Apple TV+, Disney+, HBO Max, and Paramount+ (previously CBS All Access) are really too new to get a good feel for how they will handle cancellations. So far they have been good landing places for genre entries, but we still need a few more years to get a better gauge on them.  They don’t skew the overall totals enough, so I left them in the numbers, and the chart below gives you a look at the survival rate of genre entries vs. all shows for each network.

You can find the scorecards for each network at this link. And next up is a ranking of all the networks based on how good of a landing spot they are for sci fi and fantasy television, from the best to the worst.  You can read that at this link.

More from CancelledSciFi.com: Keep up with the status updates of all the currently airing sci fi and fantasy shows with our Sci Fi TV Update posts on Fridays. And be sure to follow the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site  for breaking news and updates.

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