Scoring the 2020-21 Season Predictions for Sci Fi and Fantasy Shows

The 2020-21 regular season is over, and I am finally getting around the annual review of my renewal and cancellation predictions from the season, mesuring my accuracy.   I have predictions for all shows across the broadcast networks, cable channels, and streaming services available at the Cancellation Watch Page.  But for the streamers, those are usually just a guess because the viewership numbers for those are sparse, and the numabers don’t seem to mean much to Netflix judging by its cancellation of highly-watched shows like Jupiter’s Legacy and The Irregulars.  And for some of the cable shows it is mostly guesswork as well, especially if they are imports and/or have streaming/international deals that might keep them going.  The ones that I count in my end-of-year scoring of the predictions are the broadcast network shows and most of the cable entries.  Some shows are excluded like Pennyworth since Nielsen does not track viewership for EPIX or The CW’s Supergirl since its final season was announced in advance (something that I actually predicted last year).

Below is the list of shows that I have included in the scoring for this season along with their final status.  There are still some shows waiting for word on their fates like BBC America’s The Watch, HBO’s The Nevers, and The CW’s Pandora.  I have all of those listed as Pending below and they are not counting in the scoring at this point, but I will update the post as announcements are made. And the status of NBC’s Manifest, currently cancelled, could change (more on that at this link).

If I had a show at Renewal Likely or Renewal Possible status and it was renewed, I got it right. I counted both the Renewal statuses the same, but if you want to hold me more accountable for the Renewal Likely designation, that’s fine because it will improve my score (in other words, I got those all right). If I put the show On the Bubble, I’m basically saying it is a toss-up, and those count as a push. I did not move any shows to Cancellation Likely status this year, but if I did and it was cancelled then I would have gotten that right (and I am considering bumping The Watch to that status at this point). Overall, I was 82% accurate with my predictions (83% for the broadcast nets and 80% for the cable channels), with three misses so far. That is lower than my accuracy last year, which was at 94%, but I have been expecting the predictions to get tougher.

Score Calculation = Count of Right Divided by Total Count of Right and Wrong  

Three shows were cancelled this year that were somewhat of a surprise and that I predicted as on track for renewal. The ratings for Syfy’s Wynonna Earp were on the low side, but I thought that network would at least give the show a fifth and final season. Fans are currently lobbying for it to move to a new network. CBS spy fi entry MacGyver seemed to be coasting to a sixth season renewal when the network suddenly pulled the plug on it. But that surprise decision was likely driven by a lawsuit brought by the creators of the original series over the profits. NBC’s Manifest saw its ratings drop from its third season, but I still believed its network would bring it back for at least a fourth year. It was cancelled instead and Netflix passed on picking up the show.  Both networks are reconsidering, though, after encore runs have been topping the streaming viewing charts. If NBC un-cancels the show, that will work in my favor as far as the scoring. But if it shifts to Netflix, then it will still count as cancelled by its original network.

The 82% score is the lowest prediction rate I have had over the last four seasons and it could drop lower if pending shows like Final Space or The Nevers are cancelled (I currently have both of them at Renewal Possible). Even at that level, though, that’s a pretty good accuracy rate in the ever-changing television environment these days. It was lower than the TV Grim Reaper‘s 90% accuracy rate this year for broadcast network shows. And I expect it will be harder and harder to predict the fate of shows in the current television landscape. There are also fewer and fewer genre entries on the linear channels (other than The CW), so at some point my predictions could just turn into best guesses.

I had been expecting my accuracy rate to drop for a while, but it actually improved the last two years in a row. This year may be a correction. As more and more original programming heads to the streaming services, there will be fewer shows with consistent ratings data (the Nielsen Streaming Top 10 helps, but does not cover all streaming shows).  And within a couple of years, we could see the Nielsen ratings become mostly irrelevant for th linear networks (unless they finally start revising their measurements).  I will continue to make predictions for the broadcast and cable shows based on the ratings data available (which I get from Spoiler TV now thatg ShowBuzzDaily has shut down), though I will be tweaking the way I do the statuses (more on that in an upcoming post). For now, keep track of our Cancellation Watch posts and the weekly Sci Fi TV Update for the latest news on the fates of your favorite genre shows.

More from CancelledSciFi.com: Keep up with the status updates of all the currently airing sci fi and fantasy shows with our Sci Fi TV Update posts on Fridays. And be sure to follow the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site  for breaking news and updates.

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