This is the first Scorecard for the second half of the season and I will be putting this column back on a weekly basis through at least May. We are past the slim Fall schedule when the networks had fewer offerings due to the production shutdowns, and I have compiled a month’s worth of ratings data from the more robust Mid-Season schedule. Going forward, all comparisons for broadcast network shows will be against ratings data for the second half of the season. This will not impact the Fall shows too much because neXt was already cancelled and Swamp Thing is unlikely to be resurrected for a second season. Plus, The CW grades its acquisitions like Pandora and The Outpost on a curve.
Syfy’s new series Resident Alien performed well with its premiere last week and it is the highest new entry in the rankings at the Number 3 slot. Note that for that show, I am using only its ratings on Syfy for determining its ranking and will not include the simulcast rankings over on sister network USA. TNT’s Snowpiercer saw its ratings drop for its second season premiere, but it is still performing well for a basic cable series and starts out at the Number 6 slot. Among The CW’s Mid-Season entries, Legacies is ranked the highest at Number 4 with Batwoman just behind it at Number 5. I already had the former series pegged as a likely renewal, and the early numbers for Batwoman‘s second season look relatively good at this point. The other, non-acquisition CW shows are falling in line similar to where they ranked last season.
Further down in the charts, American Gods starts out this season pretty low at the Number 20 slot. That show’s numbers are down notably from last year and I currently have it On the Bubble (more on that at this link). BBC America’s new series The Watch has gotten off to a slow start and it enters the rankings one slot from the bottom at Number 22. That one is also a Bubble show at this point. The downward movement for the shows that were in the final Fall Scorecard is mostly due the new entries coming in ahead of them and pushing them down in the rankings.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through January 31st:
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Status |
| 1 (1) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.30 | 0.16 | 89.5% | Final Season |
| 2 (2) | Fear the Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 0.35 | 0.30 | 18.1% | Renewed |
| 3 (n/a) | Resident Alien | Syfy | 0.17 | 0.15 | 13.3% | Upcoming |
| 4 (n/a) | Legacies (O) | CW | 0.17 | 0.16 | 7.4% | Renewal Likely |
| 5 (n/a) | Batwoman (O) | CW | 0.16 | 0.16 | -1.0% | Renewal Possible |
| 6 (n/a) | Snowpiercer | TNT | 0.28 | 0.30 | -6.7% | Renewed |
| 7 (4) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.54 | 0.60 | -10.8% | Renewal Possible |
| 8 (n/a) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.14 | 0.16 | -14.7% | Renewal Likely |
| 9 (5) | The Walking Dead World Beyond (O) | AMC | 0.25 | 0.30 | -16.7% | Renewed |
| 10 (6) | Primal | ADSW | 0.19 | 0.25 | -24.0% | Renewed |
| 11 (3) | Swamp Thing (O) | CW | 0.12 | 0.16 | -24.2% | Cancelled |
| 12 (n/a) | Two Sentence Horror Stories | CW | 0.10 | 0.16 | -34.7% | Renewed |
| 13 (n/a) | Charmed (O) | CW | 0.10 | 0.16 | -36.8% | Renewal Likely |
| 14 (n/a) | Nancy Drew (O) | CW | 0.09 | 0.16 | -46.3% | Renewal Possible |
| 15 (7) | The Outpost | CW | 0.08 | 0.16 | -48.0% | Renewal Possible |
| 16 (n/a) | Trickster | CW | 0.08 | 0.16 | -49.5% | Cancelled |
| 17 (8) | Pandora | CW | 0.07 | 0.16 | -55.8% | Renewal Possible |
| 18 (9) | Star Trek Discovery (O) | CBS | 0.22 | 0.60 | -64.1% | Renewed |
| 19 (10) | NeXt | FOX | 0.25 | 0.70 | -64.6% | Cancelled |
| 20 (n/a) | American Gods (O) | Starz | 0.05 | 0.15 | -68.9% | On the Bubble |
| 21 (11) | His Dark Materials | HBO | 0.05 | 0.30 | -82.4% | Renewed |
| 22 (n/a) | The Watch | BBCA | 0.04 | 0.25 | -84.8% | Renewal Possible |
| 23 (12) | Moonbase 8 | Show | 0.01 | 0.20 | -95.6% | On the Bubble |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily
