Back in the days when there were more sci fi and fantasy shows on the broadcast networks and/or the cable channels had longer seasons, there was a “third season rule” which pretty much guaranteed that if a show was headed into its third year it was certain to get a fourth season renewal. The basic idea was that if a show had been airing full seasons of around twenty-two episodes for three years, the network was almost sure to give it a fourth season no matter the ratings–especially if the net has an ownership stake–because that would get it to the 88 episode minimum that would make it acceptable for sale to the syndication market. Because of the profits from those sales, it is worth it for a network to keep a low-rated show going for that fourth season because of the high return on investment from the encore runs. This is something that I typically refer to as the “syndication stretch” and it was first picked up on by the dearly departed Cancellation Bear.
But the fact is that the Big Four broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC) have shied away from sci fi shows the last few years and the cable channels rarely order more than thirteen episodes in a season, so the third season rule has come into play a lot less of late. But there usually are at least a few shows each year (typically on The CW) heading into the syndication stretch that may or may not benefit from this unwritten rule. This year there are four sci fi entries to consider as the season ramps up following the production delays–three on The CW and one on NBC–and I look at the prospects of each below.
Charmed (CW, 41 Episodes so far): Of all the shows headed into the syndication stretch this season, this show is the one most likely to get a fourth season renewal. Its second season was cut short by three episodes due to the production shutdowns, but it still has forty-one total so far. The CW has claimed that its late-returning shows will still get full-season episode orders, but I am guessing that might be a little shorter than usual, perhaps only twenty. If that is true, it will be at sixty-one by the end of its third season. A fourth season of twenty-two episodes will still bring in the total just under the preferred 88, but perhaps still close enough. And the fact is that while this show’s linear ratings have not been spectacular, its digital viewership has been high (and The CW pays attention to those stats), so the network may be eying a fifth season and possibly more. I believe that the third season rule will kick in for this show and I currently have it at a Renewal Likely status.
Legacies (CW, 32 Episodes so far): On one of the Big Four broadcast nets, this show would not have enough episodes for the syndication stretch because it only had sixteen episodes for each of its first two seasons. It is lucky enough to air on The CW, though, which grades on a curve. The fifth place network typically allows its shows to go at least 70 total episodes despite the ratings once they have made it past their second season. That trend did not hold up for Black Lightning with its recent final season announcement, but that one at least made it to a fourth season. If the third season of Legacies runs sixteen episodes, that will get it to 48 at the end of the year, but a fourth season will not get it to the 70 episode mark. But The CW has not ended a show without an advanced final season announcement in many years, so I still like this one’s chances for a fourth-year renewal. Plus, it is the highest-rated non-Arrow-verse show on the network, so I am putting it at Renewal Likely Status unless its numbers tank this year.
Manifest (NBC, 29 Episodes so far): This show represents a fairly new trend for the broadcast networks where their more serialized entries are getting shorter episode runs each season. Manifest had sixteen in its first year and thirteen in its second, and I expect thirteen for its upcoming season. That gets it to only 42 by year-end, well short of the syndication stretch. But I still believe this show will get at least a fourth season, as NBC could follow the example of its previous genre entry The Good Place. That show had four thirteen-episode seasons with the fourth announced in advance as its last. That gave it a total of 52 episodes and a nice tidy wrap up which makes it a binge-worthy show that the streaming services are interested in licensing (and The Good Place has been performing quite well on Netflix since it wrapped up on NBC). Manifest has not delivered strong same-day ratings for NBC, but it has usually been in the Top 10 among broadcast net shows when delayed-viewing is factored in. It has also been somewhat of a high-profile show, so I am thinking the network will not outright cancel it unless the ratings nosedive (and maybe not even then). The third season rule will not necessarily help this show, but I do believe it will be renewed for at least a fourth year if not more.
Roswell, New Mexico (CW, 26 Episodes so far): This is another third season show that comes up short of the episodes needed for the syndication stretch, but it is helped by the fact that it airs on the fifth place network. It has had thirteen episodes in each of its first two seasons and will be at 39 total by year-end with another baker’s dozen added to that. But as mentioned above, The CW rarely cancels a show these days during the season without a final year announcement in advance. Roswell, New Mexico was not enjoyed strong linear ratings, but it is another one that performs well in digital viewing. The third season rule will not help it, but the fact that it airs on the “Happy Network”–which prefers to renew rather than cancel shows–will work to its advantage. I expect this one to get at least a fourth season and possibly a fifth as well which will get it past 60 episodes like Black Lightning, possibly the new floor for CW shows.
Be sure to stay tuned to our Cancellation Watch posts throughout the rest of the season for the latest ratings results and status updates on this season’s sci fi and fantasy shows. And for predictions on all of the Mid-Season sci fi TV entries, go to this link.
More from CancelledSciFi.com: Keep up with the ratings developments and the status of all the currently airing sci fi and fantasy shows with our Weekly Roundup posts. And be sure to follow the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for breaking news and updates.
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