This is the second scorecard for Fall 2020, and as expected, there has not been much movement since the last set of rankings that I put out a few weeks ago. FOX’s neXt slipped one slot to Number 9 even though its ratings have remained stable. That is more a factor of the other shows on that network outpacing the AI-drama and running the network average up. Still, seeing how almost all scripted programming is struggling so far this season, I might have expected FOX to grade it on a curve. But instead, they cancelled it after only two episodes aired. Also slipping is The Walking Dead: World Beyond which dropped one slot to Number 4. That show has already been renewed for a second year and was planned for a limited two-season run in advance.
The CW’s encore run of Swamp Thing improved one spot to Number 3, though that is actually more a factor of TWD: World Beyond dropping below it. Still, the DC series is performing above the network’s average so far this Fall which should be encouraging. Not many eyes are on The CW’s Fall slate to begin with, but perhaps the network will consider giving Swamp Thing a second season, possibly as a Summer series. I believe that will require a push from fans, though, and I have not seen too much activity on the social networks.
HBO’s His Dark Materials enters the rankings low at the Number 10 slot, but that show’s fate is driven more by its performance across the Atlantic on BBC. Showtime’s sci fi comedy Moonbase 8 enters at the bottom of the rankings, which is not surprising seeing as it has only averaged a 0.01 rating (one one-hundredth of a ratings point) so far. That show’s chances for a second season are not looking good at the moment.
The third and final Scorecard for Fall 2020 will be posted mid-December once MacGyver has aired a couple of episodes from its fifth season. I will likely resume weekly Scorecards in February once more shows are airing.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through November 22nd:
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Status |
| 1 (1) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.30 | 0.13 | 130.1% | Final Season |
| 2 (2) | Fear the Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 0.35 | 0.30 | 18.1% | Renewal Possible |
| 3 (4) | Swamp Thing (O) | CW | 0.13 | 0.13 | 2.3% | Cancelled |
| 4 (3) | The Walking Dead World Beyond (O) | AMC | 0.26 | 0.30 | -12.5% | Renewed |
| 5 (5) | The Outpost | CW | 0.10 | 0.13 | -23.3% | Renewed |
| 6 (6) | Primal | ADSW | 0.19 | 0.25 | -24.0% | Renewed |
| 7 (7) | Pandora | CW | 0.07 | 0.13 | -49.6% | Renewal Possible |
| 8 (9) | Star Trek Discovery (O) | CBS | 0.24 | 0.58 | -58.4% | Renewed |
| 9 (8) | NeXt | FOX | 0.30 | 0.72 | -58.5% | Cancelled |
| 10 (n/a) | His Dark Materials | HBO | 0.06 | 0.30 | -80.0% | Renewal Possible |
| 11 (n/a) | Moonbase 8 | Show | 0.01 | 0.20 | -95.0% | On the Bubble |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
