The Nielsen company is trying to stay relevant in the 21st century and has released its new streaming viewership list. The inaugural list is for the week of August 3rd to August 9th, and they have revealed the Top 10 shows based on the minutes watched by the U.S. audience. I have not seen the explanation of the methodology, but almost certainly this is based on the sampling of viewers that Nielsen has selected to have a meter monitoring what they watch. Topping the list is Netflix’s The Umbrella Academy which had more than 3 billion minutes of viewing during the week according to Nielsen. The only other genre entry on the list was Supernatural which is streaming past seasons on Netflix. Here is the full Top 10 list:
1. The Umbrella Academy
2. Shameless
3. Grey’s Anatomy
4. The Office
5. Criminal Minds
6. NCIS
7. In the Dark
8. Dexter
9. Supernatural
10. Parks and Recreation
The fact that The Umbrella Academy is topping the list would seem to suggest that the show will stick around for a while (it is currently in its second season), but its success in this chart does not assure that. A third season certainly seems like a good bet for the show, and I would even put good money on a fourth year at this point. But the number of people watching the show is not the main factor Netflix uses to determine if it is a success.
For the streamers, an original series has to be driving new subscribers to the service in order for it to remain profitable. Typically a show sees the audience slip each year, though The Umbrella Academy seems to be even more popular in its second season than its first. But at some point, the viewership will take a downward turn, historical trends demand it. In addition, Netflix works on a cost-plus model which means that it pays more for the series for each new season. So that actually acts as a disincentive to keep a show going for too long.
Some of Netflix’s originals are rolled out as an event with each new season such as Stranger Things and Black Mirror. And since the former tells a new story each year (while building on the overall tale) and the latter is an anthology, they can still drive new subscribers to the service with new season releases. The Umbrella Academy is more serialized, but because of its popularity, Netflix can still play up each new season as an event. Diminishing returns (and profits) will set in at some point, though.
For the most part, Netflix shows rarely go longer than four seasons anymore. It is possible that Stranger Things and Black Mirror could buck that trend (note that only three seasons of the latter show have been produced by Netflix, the first two were on Channel 4). I also believe that The Umbrella Academy has a shot at a fifth season if viewership remains stong, but possibly not much more. If it is not bringing in enough new subscribers to justify the higher cost at that point, Netflix could decide it is time to wrap the show up. The streamers are not in it for the long run as they seem much more interested in churning through new shows in order to constantly lure in new viewers. So enjoy The Umbrella Academy while it remains popular because four to five seasons is likely its ceiling.
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