The broadcast networks are not having their typical Upfront presentations this year, where they unveil their upcoming schedule for the sponsors, but they have been slowly releasing information for their lineups for next season. On Monday, FOX released its Fall 2020 schedule which surely shows the impact of the Coronavirus-related shutdowns as it contains no returning live-action scripted shows and only three total non-animated scripted entries.
Of most interest to sci fi fans is the AI-themed drama NeXt which has been set for Mondays in Fall starting in late September. The Manny Cotto created series was originally supposed to bow at Mid-Season this year, but by March it had still not received a slot on the schedule. That suggested the show was headed for a Summer run, which is a typically low-viewership time of year and would make it difficult to attract much of an audience. The network ultimately decided to hold onto the show and add it to the Fall schedule which should give it a better chance at succeeding.
The other live-action scripted shows on the network’s Fall schedule will be the soap opera Filthy Rich–another holdover from the current season–and the procedural L.A.’s Finest which is a Spectrum original that already aired on that cable service in Fall of 2019. The Sunday night animated shows will be back (those are less susceptible to the production shutdowns) and the network will also have an encore run of Cosmos: Possible Worlds which already aired on Nat Geo this Spring. Apart from that, it is competition shows like The Masked Singer and Master Chef Jr. along with football and wrestling.
The lack of returning scripted shows and new entries indicates that the production shutdowns will definitely cut into the coming season for all the networks. Filming may be able to resume as early as June (perhaps earlier for shows filming in other countries), but that may not be soon enough to get shows ready for the typical late-September / early-October debuts. Some may be able to start airing new episodes later in Fall, but I would expect us to see an overall dearth of scripted programming on the broadcast networks and cable channels through the end of the year.
Another interesting attribute of FOX’s Fall schedule is its use of encore runs. Both L.A.’s Finest and Cosmos: Possible Worlds have already aired on other networks. The CW is doing something similar with encore runs of Swamp Thing (which originally ran on the DCU streaming service) and Tell Me a Story (a CBS All Access original). Are we perhaps getting a glimpse of what the broadcast networks will look like in the future?
As the networks move to their own streaming services such as CBS All Access and NBC’s Peacock, it’s possible we could see less in the way of first-run originals in broadcast Prime Time. Reality and competition shows are cheaper to produce, and sports programming is typically more profitable for the networks. As the live broadcast audience continues to dwindle, the networks are seeing a lower return on investment from scripted originals, especially since those nets still adhere to the old school advertising-driven model.
It is possible that moving forward, the networks could shift the focus of their scripted originals to their streaming platforms and/or partner with other streamers/networks on scripted programming. The Prime Time schedule for the broadcast networks could then become a place to slot in encore runs of these shows on a season or two lag along with reality shows, competition shows, and sports. For example, CBS could air Star Trek: Discovery Season 1 (now two years old) this coming Fall to fill up space on the schedule. Sure, the encore runs may not pull the same ratings as some current scripted originals, but they should come at a lower cost to the networks and may do well enough to justify occupying an hour or so on the schedule (while also drawing viewers to the streaming service to see more recent seasons).
This is all speculation at this point, but the fact is that the Coronavirus pandemic will definitely shake up some industries living on borrowed time like the old school broadcast networks. Perhaps by Mid-Season 2020-21, the broadcast networks will get back to business-as-usual, but the Peak TV crunch and the ratings-pocalypse will take their tolls at some point. Whether fallout from the current crisis hastens that remains to be seen.
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