Cancellation Watch Scorecard: What We Do in the Shadows Improves in the Rankings

FX’s What We Do in the Shadows has performed well for a basic cable series in its second season, seeing its number go up each week. That has the show improving by one slot in the rankings to Number 11. Currently, that horror-comedy appears to be on track for a third season renewal. Dropping two slots this week to Number 10 was The CW’s Supergirl which returned from several weeks off to series-low ratings.  But it has already been renewed for a sixth season. The rest of the movement among shows was mostly incidental and you can find the full ratings coverage from this past week and the status of all the currently airing shows in our latest Weekly Roundup post.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through May 3rd:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 1.13 0.30 277.6% Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.61 0.25 144.4% Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.45 0.26 69.7% Renewed
4 (4) Primal ADSW 0.30 0.25 20.8% Renewal Possible
5 (5) Arrow (O) CW 0.29 0.26 10.1% Final Season
6 (6) Supernatural (O) CW 0.28 0.26 8.1% Final Season
7 (7) Batwoman (O) CW 0.27 0.26 3.4% Renewed
8 (10) Legacies (O) CW 0.24 0.26 -7.4% Renewed
9 (9) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.68 0.74 -8.4% Renewal Likely
10 (8) Supergirl (O) CW 0.24 0.26 -8.4% Renewed
11 (12) What We Do in the Shadows FX 0.22 0.25 -13.3% Renewal Possible
12 (11) Riverdale (O) CW 0.22 0.26 -15.6% Renewed
13 (13) Watchmen (O) HBO 0.25 0.30 -17.0% Renewal Possible
14 (15) Outlander (O) Starz 0.12 0.15 -18.8% Renewed
15 (14) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.21 0.26 -19.3% Renewed
16 (16) The Magicians (O) Syfy 0.12 0.15 -21.1% Cancelled
17 (17) Manifest (O) NBC 0.69 0.90 -23.1% Renewal Likely
18 (18) Westworld (O) HBO 0.22 0.30 -25.4% Renewed
19 (19) Evil (O) CBS 0.52 0.74 -29.0% Renewed
20 (20) Charmed (O) (F) CW 0.18 0.26 -30.1% Renewed
21 (21) Emergence (O) ABC 0.48 0.72 -32.4% On the Bubble
22 (22) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.61 0.90 -32.5% Final Season
23 (23) Siren (O) Freeform 0.11 0.18 -37.8% On the Bubble
24 (24) Motherland Fort Salem (O) Freeform 0.10 0.18 -42.1% On the Bubble
25 (25) Van Helsing (F) Syfy 0.08 0.15 -45.1% Renewed
26 (26) Nancy Drew (O) CW 0.14 0.26 -47.3% Renewed
27 (27) Roswell New Mexico (O) (F) CW 0.14 0.26 -47.8% Renewed
28 (28) Mr Robot (O) USA 0.12 0.25 -53.8% Final Season
29 (29) Vagrant Queen (F) Syfy 0.06 0.15 -61.3% Cancellation Likely
30 (30) Avenue 5 HBO 0.11 0.30 -63.3% Renewed
31 (31) His Dark Materials HBO 0.10 0.30 -67.5% Renewed
32 (32) Dispatches from Elsewhere (O) AMC 0.08 0.30 -73.3% Cancellation Likely
33 (33) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.02 0.10 -76.5% Final Season
34 (34) Penny Dreadful City of Angels Showtime 0.04 0.20 -80.0% On the Bubble

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

Author: johnnyjay

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