Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Westworld and Motherland Fort Salem Slip, Vagrant Queen Enters Low in the Rankings

The viewership numbers have been on the decline for HBO’s Westworld in its third season and that has the show dropping four slots this week to Number 14 and out of the Top 10. The premium cable channels pay less attention to the same-day numbers, though, so this one may still be on track for a fourth season. Over on Freeform, freshman series Motherland Fort Salem slipped five slots from where it entered the charts last week to Number 21. That show could be getting shifted to Bubble status soon. Also slipping this week is AMC’s Dispatches from Elsewhere which dropped three slots to Number 30, one from the bottom. It is very much On the Bubble at this point.  Entering the rankings this week is Syfy’s Vagrant Queen, but the low ratings for its debut has the show starting in the bottom third at the Number 24 slot. The rest of the movement among shows was mostly incidental and you can find the full ratings coverage from this past week and the status of all the currently airing shows in our latest Weekly Roundup post.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through March 29th:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 1.13 0.30 277.6% Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.61 0.30 103.7% Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.45 0.26 72.1% Renewed
4 (4) Primal ADSW 0.30 0.25 20.8% Renewal Possible
5 (5) Arrow (O) CW 0.29 0.26 10.1% Final Season
6 (6) Supernatural (O) CW 0.28 0.26 8.1% Final Season
7 (7) Batwoman (O) CW 0.28 0.26 6.8% Renewed
8 (8) Supergirl (O) CW 0.25 0.26 -5.1% Renewed
9 (9) Legacies (O) CW 0.24 0.26 -7.4% Renewed
10 (11) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.66 0.74 -10.8% Renewal Likely
11 (12) Riverdale (O) CW 0.23 0.26 -14.6% Renewed
12 (13) Watchmen (O) HBO 0.25 0.30 -17.0% Renewal Possible
13 (14) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.21 0.26 -19.3% Renewed
14 (10) Westworld (O) HBO 0.24 0.30 -20.0% Renewal Possible
15 (17) The Magicians (O) Syfy 0.12 0.15 -22.4% Cancelled
16 (15) Outlander (O) Starz 0.12 0.15 -22.9% Renewed
17 (18) Manifest (O) NBC 0.69 0.90 -23.2% Renewal Possible
18 (19) Roswell New Mexico (O) (F) CW 0.20 0.26 -24.1% Renewed
19 (20) Evil (O) CBS 0.52 0.74 -29.0% Renewed
20 (21) Charmed (O) (F) CW 0.19 0.26 -29.1% Renewed
21 (16) Motherland Fort Salem (O) (F) Freeform 0.13 0.18 -30.6% Renewal Possible
22 (22) Emergence (O) ABC 0.48 0.72 -32.4% Cancellation Likely
23 (23) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.61 0.90 -32.5% Final Season
24 (n/a) Vagrant Queen (F) Syfy 0.10 0.15 -33.3% Renewal Possible
25 (24) Van Helsing (F) Syfy 0.08 0.15 -45.1% Renewed
26 (25) Nancy Drew (O) CW 0.14 0.26 -45.4% Renewed
27 (26) Mr Robot (O) USA 0.12 0.25 -53.8% Final Season
28 (28) Avenue 5 HBO 0.11 0.30 -63.3% Renewed
29 (29) His Dark Materials HBO 0.10 0.30 -67.5% Renewed
30 (27) Dispatches from Elsewhere (O) AMC 0.10 0.30 -67.8% On the Bubble
31 (30) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.02 0.10 -76.5% Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

Author: johnnyjay

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