Starz’s romantic fantasy Outlander is currently at series-low levels for its same-day viewing, and its numbers slipped this past weekend causing it to drop two slots in the rankings from Number 12 to Number 14. But the premium cable channel does not pay very close attention to the same-day numbers because it does not have to answer to advertisers. Outlander has already been renewed for a sixth season and could stick around beyond that. The rest of the movement among shows was mostly incidental and you can find the full ratings coverage from this past week and the status of all the currently airing shows in our latest Weekly Roundup post.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through March 8th:
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 1.12 | 0.30 | 274.5% | Renewed |
| 2 (2) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 0.61 | 0.30 | 103.7% | Renewed |
| 3 (3) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.47 | 0.26 | 78.2% | Renewed |
| 4 (4) | Primal | ADSW | 0.30 | 0.25 | 20.8% | Renewal Possible |
| 5 (5) | Batwoman (O) | CW | 0.29 | 0.26 | 11.2% | Renewed |
| 6 (6) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.29 | 0.26 | 10.5% | Final Season |
| 7 (7) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.29 | 0.26 | 10.1% | Final Season |
| 8 (8) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.26 | 0.26 | -2.4% | Renewed |
| 9 (9) | Legacies (O) | CW | 0.25 | 0.26 | -3.6% | Renewed |
| 10 (10) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.64 | 0.74 | -13.1% | Renewal Possible |
| 11 (11) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.23 | 0.26 | -13.9% | Renewed |
| 12 (13) | Watchmen (O) | HBO | 0.25 | 0.30 | -17.0% | Renewal Possible |
| 13 (14) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.21 | 0.26 | -18.6% | Renewed |
| 14 (12) | Outlander (O) | Starz | 0.12 | 0.15 | -20.0% | Renewal Possible |
| 15 (15) | Manifest (O) | NBC | 0.69 | 0.90 | -23.6% | Renewal Possible |
| 16 (16) | The Magicians (O) | Syfy | 0.11 | 0.15 | -25.0% | Cancelled |
| 17 (17) | Evil (O) | CBS | 0.52 | 0.74 | -29.0% | Renewed |
| 18 (18) | Charmed (O) (F) | CW | 0.19 | 0.26 | -29.5% | Renewed |
| 19 (19) | Emergence (O) | ABC | 0.48 | 0.72 | -32.4% | Cancellation Likely |
| 20 (20) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 0.61 | 0.90 | -32.5% | Final Season |
| 21 (22) | Dispatches from Elsewhere (O) | AMC | 0.17 | 0.30 | -43.3% | Renewal Possible |
| 22 (21) | Nancy Drew (O) | CW | 0.15 | 0.26 | -44.3% | Renewed |
| 23 (23) | Van Helsing (F) | Syfy | 0.08 | 0.15 | -45.1% | Renewed |
| 24 (24) | Mr Robot (O) | USA | 0.12 | 0.25 | -53.8% | Final Season |
| 25 (25) | Avenue 5 | HBO | 0.11 | 0.30 | -63.3% | Renewed |
| 26 (26) | His Dark Materials | HBO | 0.10 | 0.30 | -67.5% | Renewed |
| 27 (27) | Star Wars Resistance (O) | Disney | 0.02 | 0.10 | -76.5% | Final Season |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
Neilsen ratings DON’T MATTER for premium cable shows which depend on subscribers (the majority of whom watch on apps and other non-broadcast/non-cable platforms) instead of advertising sales to generate revenue. Along with Power, Outlander remains STARZ’s most popular show, with huge increases in subscriptions thanks to its continued production.
The Nielsen ratings do not necessarily dictate the fate of shows on the premium cable channels, but they do act as a leading indicator of the audience size. But as I have said in multiple places, Outlander has already been renewed for a sixth season and I still expect more beyond that.