AMC’s The Walking Dead has returned for its tenth season and the same day ratings for the four episodes it has aired so far this year have each set series lows. The Season 10 debut ratings were not only the lowest ever for a premiere episode, they set a series low at that point. And since then the numbers have dropped each week. With that in mind, it would certainly seem like the show is on its last leg and headed for cancellation shortly, right? Surely the zombie-rot has set in and it’s time for AMC to give the franchise a rest?
Sorry, not happening. The Walking Dead will continue walking, possibly for several more years and maybe longer.
First off, AMC already renewed the show for an eleventh year prior to its Season 10 debut. And even though the numbers are down notably this season, that will do nothing to cause AMC to waver on the franchise. The most recent episode posted a 1.1 rating based on same-day viewing. That still has it as the top scripted show on the cable channels this season and in the Top 10 across all networks. Sure, the ratings are not at the stratospheric levels they were back in the day this show outpaced almost everything on television. But it is still a top-rated show–which is saying something in the Peak TV era–and certainly still bringing in top-dollar for ads.
And this show is at the point that the same-day ratings (or even the delayed and digital viewing numbers) do not dictate its fate anymore. It is well past the threshold that the syndication market prefers for an encore run and has already certainly made a nice profit from airings in that venue. It is also surely fetching a nice sum in licensing fees from Netflix where past seasons are available to stream. So at this point, additional seasons just pad out the package that is already a hot property for the secondary market. Even if current seasons are not drawing sufficient revenue from advertising–which is certainly not the case yet–the long-term profits would still make it worthwhile to AMC to keep the show going.
There will be a point where that is no longer true, but the show is not there yet. AMC execs have already claimed that they have plans for the franchise for the next decade and more. And a second sequel series is set to debut in Spring 2020 with the Rick-centric movies also on the slate to start dropping next year. And spin-off series Fear the Walking Dead returns for a sixth season in Summer 2020. So the franchise will continue to have a notable presence on television for the near future and that will carry over to the long-term.
But surely the zombie-rot will start taking its toll at some point. Fear the Walking Dead was notably down in the ratings during its fifth season and fans have turned on the show after it has gone through nearly a complete reboot. That one will be at a syndication-friendly count of episodes by the end of its next season and I’m thinking that or possibly a seventh year will be its last. The new series–still untitled–might revive some interest in the franchise, or it could just be more diminishing returns. I’m guessing the Rick movies could draw decent viewership and perhaps stand-alone films might be the best way to keep the TWD-universe from getting stale.
As for The Walking Dead itself, I expect at least a few more years from that one. I previously suggested that it would last no less than twelve seasons, and I still stand by that. And it is highly unlikely that AMC would outright cancel the show no matter the ratings, so I expect that we will know in advance when it is heading into its final year. That could be the twelfth season, but at this point I’m thinking they may stretch it further. There is plenty more material to mine from the comics that could easily keep the show going for fifteen seasons and possibly more. The caveat to this being if more of the lead cast start departing. Andrew Lincoln has already left, soon to be followed by SPOILER Danai Gurira END SPOILER, and if more of the leads decide to move on that could change AMC’s commitment to keeping the lead show going. But the main series still has at least two more years in it, and possibly more.
It has become trendy of late to hate on The Walking Dead and the naysayers love to jump on the headlines touting the show’s sinking ratings and the fact that it sets a new low each week. But viewership wanes for television shows over time, and the fact that TWD has remained a top-performing show for as long as it has is quite impressive. AMC execs are not focused on the overnight ratings anymore as they look at the overall product that promises to continue generating revenue for years to come. TWD will come to an end at some point, but not because of the ratings and not with a sudden cancellation. It makes too much business sense to let the show go out with a proper ending (whether the fans like that ending or not is a different story, right Mr. Benioff and Mr. Weiss?).
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