Despite the changes that Peak TV has brought to the television landscape, over the past ten-plus years one rule as been pretty much a sure-thing for the broadcast networks and that is the three-season rule, or what I sometimes refer to as the syndication stretch. It works like this: if a broadcast network show has been renewed for three seasons with approximately a 22-episode order for each season, it is pretty much guaranteed to get a fourth season renewal. The reason is that the fourth season will get the show to around the 88-episode mark which makes it attractive to the syndication market and that is where shows can really start to turn a profit. So even if the ratings are low in the show’s third and/or fourth season, it is still worth it to the network and/or studio to keep it going because of the money it will make in its eventual encore run in syndication.
There are some additional conditions to this rule that should be noted. First off, it applies primarily to the broadcast networks and more so to the Big Four (ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC). In more recent years, it typically requires that the network have an ownership stake in the show for it to be a guarantee. We have seen instances where a show met the three-season rule qualifications but was owned by another studio and was cancelled by the network (FOX’s non-genre sitcom The Mindy Project is an example of this, though it was picked up by Hulu after cancellation). Apart from that, the three-season rule (or certain derivations on it) has almost always held up. Last year’s MacGyver is a good example. Its numbers on CBS were passable at best, and it took a while for the network to make an announcement, but it received the expected fourth season renewal.
With that said, will The CW’s Black Lightning–the only third season genre entry on the broadcast networks this year–benefit from the three-season rule?
Actually, it won’t because it does not meet all of the qualifications. It has run three seasons and it is owned by the network, but it did not have twenty-two episodes in each of its first two seasons. If the third season order is for 22 eps (I haven’t seen the count yet), that will put it at a max of 51 by season-end, which means it will fall short of making the syndication stretch. However, fans should not fret over this one because it airs on The CW, which has its own variation of the three-season rule. Once a show has made it to its third season on The CW, it will stick around for at least 70 episodes with an advance announcement for its final season. This has been the case for every series on the network except one over the past ten years. And while 70 eps is short for the syndication market, The CW focuses more on licensing its shows to the streaming services and that provides a binge-worthy run with a resolution to the show’s storylines. So based on this, I would expect Black Lightning to be back for at least a fourth season if not more.
How much longer the three-season rule will hold up on the Big Four nets remains to be seen, especially with all the current changes to the television landscape. Some may argue that the syndication market will become a thing of the past with all the streaming services out there. But I’m not convinced. We already see less in the way of scripted shows on the cable networks and I believe they will continue to shy away from that type of programming. Within a few years, the cable nets that survive the Peak TV crunch could look very much like they did in the early days, airing mostly repeats. There are also quite a number of digital broadcast channels like MeTV and Comet TV that are looking for more programming. And as the broadcast networks start offering their own streaming platforms like CBS All Access and Peacock, perhaps original programming gets shifted to those venues with their linear counterparts just airing encore runs.
The cut-back in episode counts will definitely have an impact on the three-season rule in the coming years as well. Shows are receiving less than the 22-episode order these days like NBC’s Manifest which only had sixteen for its first season. If that one goes two more seasons at the same episode count, it will be short of the syndication stretch at the end of its third year. But then the broadcast networks are paying attention to the streaming market as well. The Good Place will have run four seasons totaling 52 episodes once it wraps up this year, which is on the low-side for the syndication market. But that is a binge-worthy run that the streaming services will interested in picking up, especially when you factor in the good buzz the show gets from critics.
So the television landscape is changing and the three-season rule may not be as certain (or as reachable) as it once was. But I still expect it to hold up for some shows, especially those that fit into the more typical Prime Time friendly formula the boradcast nets prefer and that will eventually provide sufficient schedule padding for channels looking to fill out their line up with encore runs.
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