Cancellation Watch: Do Netflix and the Other Streaming Services Have a Three Season Cap on Their Original Shows?

Netflix had an astounding twenty-one shows streaming new episodes during the 2018-19 season, but as reported previously, five of those were cancelled and one was in its final season with an additional eight still awaiting word on their fates.  The streaming services, especially Netflix, have definitely been prolific in their output of scripted originals with plenty to choose from in the sci fi and fantasy arena.  And while they have typically given these shows at least two seasons and allowed them a fair amount of creative freedom, we are seeing a definite trend of ending shows after a rather short run, usually around three seasons.

Deadline Hollywood had an article in March of this year noting Netflix’s tendency to cancel shows after only a few seasons.  The streaming service is constantly putting new shows out there, but its commitment to them appears to be limited.  New shows tend to bring in new subscribers, but diminishing returns set in as a show continues beyond its first season.  The trend follows that of broadcast network and cable shows which typically see audience attrition each year that they air.  Netflix does not share much of its viewership information, but there is plenty of reason to believe that its shows are subject to the same trend.

The success of a Netflix show (as with most of the streaming services) is not tied as much to viewership as to how many new subscribers it draws in.  A show tends to draw in the most new subscribers with its first season, with fewer and fewer in subsequent years.  That may be different with some shows that are rolled out more as an event each season like Stranger Things and Black Mirror, but in general the decline in new subscribers is the norm.  Deadline notes that Netflix has decided to focus on churning a constant stream of new programming and has less interest in keeping veteran shows going beyond a few seasons, with longer-running shows like non-genre entries House of Cards and Orange is the New Black becoming a rarity.  The cost structure that Netflix uses impacts this as well as the streaming service pays more for each subsequent season while seeing less return on its investment.

Shorter runs are not necessarily a bad thing, and those are common in Britain and other places around the world.  Plus, if the creative team knows in advance that they may run into a three-season wall, they can plan their story to wrap up in that time frame.  But at typically eight to ten episodes per season, that puts a limit on how much a show can develop its story and makes Netflix a bad landing spot for long form genre entries like Lost, The Walking Dead, and Game of Thrones.  Plus, there is no guarantee that the streaming service will give a show the chance to wrap up its storylines as we saw with the abrupt cancellation of Sense8 (though a raucous fan campaign did at least get that show a two-hour series finale).

Below is the list of original Netflix sci fi and fantasy shows, sorted by cancelled/ended then active.  You will see that no show has run for more than three seasons on the streaming service (the first two seasons of Black Mirror aired on Channel 4 in Britain and the first three seasons of Lucifer aired on FOX).  Several of the active shows have the potential to run for more than three seasons such as Black Mirror, Lost in Space, Stranger Things, Lucifer, and more.  But Netflix may not have an interest in keeping them going, especially the more expensive ones like Lost in Space.  And since the streaming service usually works out exclusive deals for its shows, the chances of a cancelled series jumping to another venue are slim.

List of Netflix Sci Fi and Fantasy Shows:

The other major streaming services–Amazon and Hulu–are not immune to this either.  Their output of scripted originals is much more modest compared to Netflix, but the longevity is hardly any better.  The only show to have made it past four seasons so far is Amazon’s The Man in the High Castle, but it will be wrapping up this Fall.  The Expanse is heading to Amazon for its fourth year (after Syfy’s ignominious cancellation), and fans may wonder how long it will last on the streaming service.  Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale could survive for a few more seasons beyond its upcoming third year, but that will likely depend on if it continues to draw recognition during awards season.

List of Amazon and Hulu Sci Fi and Fantasy Shows:

So while the streaming services, especially Netflix, have been a boon for sci fi and fantasy television shows over the last half decade or so, fans are finding that they should not get too attached to these genre entries.  These shows are more likely to get a second season than if they were on the broadcast networks or cable channels, but they also appear to face a third year wall based on the model that the streamers (particularly Netflix) are following.  Some might believe this a good thing, especially those who feel that shows like Lost or other serialized dramas were overly padded.  But many more sci fi fans will likely start to grow frustrated by the short runs on the streaming services, especially if this is caused by an abrupt cancellation.  And while the churn mentality may bring in new subscribers in the short term, it will likely have longer-reaching, negative repercussions that could drive viewers away as more streaming services like Disney+ and WarnerMedia expand the ever-tightening Peak TV bubble.

More from CancelledSciFi.com:

Keep up with the ratings developments and the status of all the currently airing sci fi and fantasy shows with our Weekly Roundup posts. Join the #CancelledSciFiArmy on Twitter to bolster our ranks and help us fight for the struggling and cancelled sci fi and fantasy shows.

Check out our Sci Fi TV Schedule for debut and season finale dates and follow our Weekly Listings for a rundown of the shows airing in the current week.

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