Cancellation Watch Scorecard: The 100 Enters the Rankings in the Top 20

The CW’s post-apocalyptic series The 100 had its fifth season debut last week and posted numbers better than its prior season average. That has it entering the Scorecard in the Number 18 slot this week. I expect the show to slip some in the coming weeks, but at the moment it is looking good for the fifth place network. HBO’s Westworld slipped three slots (from Number 9 to Number 12) after its ratings dropped this past Sunday, but that one is safe because it was just renewed by the premium cable network. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental and you can see the full rankings below.




The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through April 29th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 3.39 0.50 578.0% 5.22 Renewed
2 (2) Fear the Walking Dead (O) AMC 1.23 0.50 146.0% n/a Renewal Possible
3 (3) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.10 0.50 120.7% 2.47 Renewed
4 (4) The Flash (O) CW 0.72 0.39 84.3% 1.61 Renewed
5 (5) Krypton Syfy 0.28 0.17 61.8% 0.77 Renewal Possible
6 (6) Ghosted (O) FOX 1.60 1.00 60.3% n/a On the Bubble
7 (7) Outlander Starz 0.32 0.20 59.6% 0.60 Renewed
8 (8) The Magicians (O) Syfy 0.26 0.17 54.3% 0.57 Renewal Likely
9 (10) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.56 0.39 43.7% 0.97 Renewed
10 (12) Supernatural (O) CW 0.55 0.39 41.9% 0.99 Renewed
11 (11) Supergirl (O) CW 0.53 0.39 36.5% 1.01 Renewed
12 (9) Westworld HBO 0.81 0.60 34.2% n/a Renewed
13 (13) Siren Freeform 0.25 0.20 27.0% 0.55 Renewal Possible
14 (14) Happy (O) Syfy 0.21 0.17 24.3% 0.55 Renewed
15 (15) Riverdale (O) CW 0.44 0.39 12.6% 1.01 Renewed
16 (16) The Expanse Syfy 0.18 0.17 5.9% n/a Renewal Possible
17 (17) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.41 0.39 5.2% 0.94 Renewed
18 (n/a) The 100 (O) CW 0.40 0.39 2.4% n/a Renewal Possible
18 (18) The Originals (O) CW 0.40 0.39 2.4% n/a Final Season
20 (19) Z Nation Syfy 0.17 0.17 0.5% 0.37 Renewed
21 (20) The Orville (O) FOX 1.00 1.00 0.2% 2.15 Renewed
22 (21) Arrow (O) CW 0.38 0.39 -2.3% 0.93 Renewed
23 (22) The X-Files (O) FOX 0.95 1.00 -4.8% n/a Final Season
24 (23) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.04 1.13 -7.6% 1.95 Renewed
25 (24) Into the Badlands (O) AMC 0.45 0.50 -11.0% n/a Renewal Possible
26 (25) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.85 1.00 -14.8% 2.08 Renewed
27 (26) Final Space (O) TBS 0.24 0.30 -19.2% n/a Renewal Possible
28 (28) Shadowhunters (O) Freeform 0.16 0.20 -21.7% 0.40 Renewal Possible
29 (27) Lucifer FOX 0.78 1.00 -21.7% 1.37 Renewal Possible
30 (30) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.06 0.08 -21.9% n/a Renewed
31 (29) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.85 1.09 -21.9% n/a Renewed
32 (31) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.77 1.00 -23.2% n/a On the Bubble
33 (32) Van Helsing Syfy 0.13 0.17 -25.8% 0.30 Renewed
34 (33) The Librarians TNT 0.29 0.40 -27.5% 0.60 Cancelled
35 (34) Mr Robot (O) USA 0.22 0.30 -28.0% 0.44 Renewed
36 (35) Gotham FOX 0.70 1.00 -29.9% 1.41 Renewal Possible
37 (36) The Crossing (O) ABC 0.78 1.16 -33.2% 1.60 On the Bubble
38 (37) iZombie (O) CW 0.24 0.39 -39.2% 0.50 Renewal Possible
39 (38) Timeless (O) NBC 0.61 1.13 -45.4% 1.23 On the Bubble
40 (39) Superstition Syfy 0.09 0.17 -48.5% n/a Cancellation Likely
41 (40) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.09 0.17 -49.0% n/a Renewed
42 (42) The Inhumans (O) (F) ABC 0.59 1.16 -49.5% 1.13 Cancellation Likely
42 (43) Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) ABC 0.59 1.16 -49.5% 0.97 Cancellation Likely
44 (41) Ghost Wars Syfy 0.09 0.17 -49.8% n/a Cancelled
45 (44) Counterpart Starz 0.09 0.20 -53.0% n/a Renewed
46 (45) Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) ABC 0.54 1.16 -53.8% 1.23 Renewal Possible
47 (46) The Shannara Chronicles (O) Spike 0.09 0.20 -54.3% 0.30 Cancelled
48 (47) Legion (O) FX 0.22 0.50 -56.5% 0.70 Renewal Possible
49 (48) Beyond Freeform 0.09 0.20 -56.7% n/a Cancelled
50 (49) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.42 1.00 -57.9% 0.60 Cancellation Likely
51 (50) Once Upon A Time (O) (F) ABC 0.46 1.16 -60.7% 1.02 Cancelled
52 (51) Ash vs Evil Dead Starz 0.07 0.20 -63.3% n/a Cancelled
53 (52) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.07 0.30 -76.7% n/a Cancelled

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

Author: johnnyjay

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