AMC’s Fear the Walking Dead had its fourth season debut last week and Syfy’s The Expanse had its third season debut and both started off with good ratings. The former series enters the Scorecard at the Number 2 slot, just behind parent series TWD, and the latter starts off at Number 14. The Expanse will probably slip some in the coming weeks because its numbers may trend down a bit after its premiere, but FtWD is far enough ahead of the AMC benchmark that it looks like it will hold at Number 2 for a while. Slipping in the Scorecard this week were Shadowhunters, The Last Man on Earth, and Legion, all of which have seen notable ratings declines. Most of the rest of the movement this week was incidental and you can see the full rankings below.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through April 15th (metric definitions below):
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Live+7 Avg Rtg | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 3.39 | 0.50 | 578.0% | 5.73 | Renewed |
| 2 (n/a) | Fear the Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 1.63 | 0.50 | 226.0% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 3 (2) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 1.10 | 0.50 | 120.7% | 2.47 | Renewed |
| 4 (4) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.74 | 0.39 | 86.7% | 1.64 | Renewed |
| 5 (3) | Krypton | Syfy | 0.32 | 0.17 | 85.3% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 6 (5) | Outlander | Starz | 0.32 | 0.20 | 59.6% | 0.60 | Renewed |
| 7 (6) | Ghosted (O) | FOX | 1.60 | 1.01 | 58.5% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 8 (7) | The Magicians (O) | Syfy | 0.26 | 0.17 | 54.3% | 0.60 | Renewal Likely |
| 9 (9) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.58 | 0.39 | 45.6% | 1.01 | Renewed |
| 10 (8) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.57 | 0.39 | 43.5% | 0.98 | Renewed |
| 10 (10) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.57 | 0.39 | 43.5% | 1.10 | Renewed |
| 12 (11) | Siren | Freeform | 0.26 | 0.20 | 30.0% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 13 (12) | Happy (O) | Syfy | 0.21 | 0.17 | 24.3% | 0.55 | Renewed |
| 14 (n/a) | The Expanse | Syfy | 0.21 | 0.17 | 23.5% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 15 (13) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.45 | 0.39 | 13.9% | 1.10 | Renewed |
| 16 (14) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.41 | 0.39 | 4.1% | 1.03 | Renewed |
| 17 (15) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.40 | 0.39 | 1.3% | 0.97 | Renewed |
| 18 (16) | Z Nation | Syfy | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.5% | 0.37 | Renewed |
| 19 (17) | The Orville (O) | FOX | 1.00 | 1.01 | -0.9% | 2.15 | Renewed |
| 20 (18) | The X-Files (O) | FOX | 0.95 | 1.01 | -5.9% | n/a | Final Season |
| 21 (20) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 1.04 | 1.16 | -10.3% | 1.95 | Renewed |
| 22 (21) | Final Space (O) | TBS | 0.26 | 0.30 | -15.0% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 23 (22) | The Gifted (O) | FOX | 0.85 | 1.01 | -15.8% | 2.08 | Renewed |
| 24 (19) | Shadowhunters (O) | Freeform | 0.17 | 0.20 | -16.3% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 25 (25) | Lucifer | FOX | 0.80 | 1.01 | -20.7% | 1.17 | Renewal Possible |
| 26 (23) | The Last Man on Earth (O) | FOX | 0.80 | 1.01 | -20.7% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 27 (24) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.88 | 1.11 | -21.2% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 28 (26) | Stan Against Evil | IFC | 0.06 | 0.08 | -21.9% | n/a | Renewed |
| 29 (28) | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.13 | 0.17 | -25.8% | 0.30 | Renewed |
| 30 (29) | The Librarians | TNT | 0.29 | 0.40 | -27.5% | 0.60 | Cancelled |
| 31 (30) | Mr Robot (O) | USA | 0.22 | 0.30 | -28.0% | 0.44 | Renewed |
| 32 (27) | The Crossing (O) | ABC | 0.85 | 1.21 | -29.7% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 33 (31) | Gotham | FOX | 0.70 | 1.01 | -30.6% | 1.54 | Renewal Possible |
| 34 (32) | iZombie (O) | CW | 0.23 | 0.39 | -40.9% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 35 (34) | Timeless (O) | NBC | 0.64 | 1.16 | -44.8% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 36 (35) | Superstition | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -48.5% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 37 (33) | Legion (O) | FX | 0.26 | 0.50 | -49.0% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 38 (36) | Channel Zero (O) | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -49.0% | n/a | Renewed |
| 39 (37) | Ghost Wars | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -49.8% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 40 (38) | The Inhumans (O) (F) | ABC | 0.59 | 1.21 | -51.5% | 1.13 | Cancellation Likely |
| 40 (39) | Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) | ABC | 0.59 | 1.21 | -51.5% | 0.97 | Cancellation Likely |
| 42 (41) | Counterpart | Starz | 0.09 | 0.20 | -53.0% | n/a | Renewed |
| 43 (40) | Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) | ABC | 0.56 | 1.21 | -53.8% | 1.33 | Renewal Possible |
| 44 (42) | The Shannara Chronicles (O) | Spike | 0.09 | 0.20 | -54.3% | 0.30 | Cancelled |
| 45 (43) | Beyond | Freeform | 0.09 | 0.20 | -56.7% | n/a | Cancelled |
| 46 (44) | The Exorcist (O) (F) | FOX | 0.42 | 1.01 | -58.4% | 0.60 | Cancellation Likely |
| 47 (46) | Ash vs Evil Dead | Starz | 0.08 | 0.20 | -61.9% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 48 (45) | Once Upon A Time (O) (F) | ABC | 0.46 | 1.21 | -62.2% | 1.07 | Cancelled |
| 49 (47) | Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency | BBCA | 0.07 | 0.30 | -76.7% | n/a | Cancelled |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
Hoping for good things from The Expanse’s ratings this year. Last season it dipped as low as a 0.11. Not a good look. I’m happy folks are saying the 0.21 opener for S3 is fine enough form but when S2 started off with a 0.25 and dipped so low it gives me a heckin’ panic.
Agreed. Hoping with all the good buzz the show has been getting that its ratings will be more steady this year.
#RenewTheExpanse