Syfy’s Krypton had a strong debut for its network last week and that has it entering the rankings in the Number 2 slot. I expect it to drop down pretty quickly because comic book based shows tend to draw a notable amount of curious onlookers for the first episode who quickly lose interest. But I still expect the show to do relatively well for a Syfy entry and it will likely soar into a second season. Freeform’s Shadowhunters returned last week for its third season and its numbers were down from the prior year, but it entered the rankings in the upper half at the Number 17 slot and I expect it to hover in the range through the season. Most of the rest of the movement in the scorecard was incidental with two new entries pushing down several other shows. Though The Last Man on Earth, Final Space, and Once Upon A Time experienced slippage due to declining and/or low ratings numbers. And note that while FOX’s Ghosted remains in the Top 10, that is heavily influenced by strong lead-ins from the NFL in Fall and I expect it to take a notable drop when (if) the show returns from its extended hiatus.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through March 25th (metric definitions below):
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Live+7 Avg Rtg | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 3.49 | 0.50 | 598.3% | 5.73 | Renewed |
| 2 (n/a) | Krypton | Syfy | 0.42 | 0.17 | 147.1% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 3 (2) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 1.10 | 0.50 | 120.7% | 2.47 | Renewed |
| 4 (3) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.76 | 0.41 | 83.8% | 1.64 | Renewal Likely |
| 5 (4) | Outlander | Starz | 0.32 | 0.20 | 59.6% | 0.60 | Renewed |
| 6 (6) | Ghosted (O) | FOX | 1.60 | 1.03 | 55.2% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 7 (5) | The Magicians (O) | Syfy | 0.26 | 0.17 | 54.5% | 0.60 | Renewal Likely |
| 8 (7) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.59 | 0.41 | 42.9% | 1.10 | Renewal Possible |
| 9 (8) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.58 | 0.41 | 41.6% | 0.98 | Renewal Likely |
| 10 (9) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.58 | 0.41 | 39.6% | 1.01 | Renewal Likely |
| 11 (10) | Happy (O) | Syfy | 0.21 | 0.17 | 24.3% | 0.55 | Renewed |
| 12 (11) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.47 | 0.41 | 14.4% | 1.10 | Renewal Likely |
| 13 (13) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.42 | 0.41 | 1.1% | 1.03 | Renewal Likely |
| 13 (14) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.42 | 0.41 | 1.1% | 0.97 | Renewal Likely |
| 15 (12) | Z Nation | Syfy | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.5% | 0.37 | Renewed |
| 16 (16) | The Orville (O) | FOX | 1.00 | 1.03 | -3.0% | 2.15 | Renewed |
| 17 (n/a) | Shadowhunters (O) | Freeform | 0.19 | 0.20 | -5.0% | n/a | Renewed |
| 18 (17) | The X-Files (O) | FOX | 0.95 | 1.03 | -7.9% | n/a | Final Season |
| 19 (15) | The Last Man on Earth (O) | FOX | 0.93 | 1.03 | -10.3% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 20 (19) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 1.04 | 1.22 | -14.9% | 1.95 | Renewed |
| 21 (18) | Final Space (O) | TBS | 0.25 | 0.30 | -15.8% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 22 (20) | The Gifted (O) | FOX | 0.85 | 1.03 | -17.6% | 2.08 | Renewed |
| 23 (21) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.92 | 1.14 | -19.5% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 24 (22) | Stan Against Evil | IFC | 0.06 | 0.08 | -21.9% | n/a | Renewed |
| 25 (23) | Lucifer | FOX | 0.80 | 1.03 | -22.4% | 1.17 | Renewal Possible |
| 26 (24) | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.13 | 0.17 | -25.8% | 0.30 | Renewed |
| 27 (25) | The Librarians | TNT | 0.29 | 0.40 | -27.5% | 0.60 | Cancelled |
| 28 (26) | Mr Robot (O) | USA | 0.22 | 0.30 | -28.0% | 0.44 | Renewed |
| 29 (27) | Gotham | FOX | 0.70 | 1.03 | -32.1% | 1.54 | Renewal Possible |
| 30 (28) | iZombie (O) | CW | 0.25 | 0.41 | -39.3% | n/a | Renewed |
| 31 (29) | Timeless (O) | NBC | 0.70 | 1.22 | -42.7% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 32 (30) | Superstition | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -48.5% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 33 (31) | Channel Zero (O) | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -49.0% | n/a | Renewed |
| 34 (32) | The Inhumans (O) (F) | ABC | 0.59 | 1.16 | -49.5% | 1.13 | Cancellation Likely |
| 34 (33) | Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) | ABC | 0.59 | 1.16 | -49.5% | 0.97 | Cancellation Likely |
| 36 (34) | Ghost Wars | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -49.8% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 37 (35) | Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) | ABC | 0.57 | 1.16 | -51.1% | 1.33 | On the Bubble |
| 38 (36) | Counterpart | Starz | 0.09 | 0.20 | -53.3% | n/a | Renewed |
| 39 (37) | The Shannara Chronicles (O) | Spike | 0.09 | 0.20 | -54.3% | 0.30 | Cancelled |
| 40 (38) | Beyond | Freeform | 0.09 | 0.20 | -56.7% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 41 (40) | The Exorcist (O) (F) | FOX | 0.42 | 1.03 | -59.3% | 0.60 | Cancellation Likely |
| 42 (41) | Ash vs Evil Dead | Starz | 0.08 | 0.20 | -60.0% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 43 (39) | Once Upon A Time (O) (F) | ABC | 0.45 | 1.16 | -61.2% | 1.07 | Cancelled |
| 44 (42) | Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency | BBCA | 0.07 | 0.30 | -76.7% | n/a | Cancelled |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
