ABC’s Agents of SHIELD had its late Fall start this past Friday, and its ratings are predictably low, though not disastrous (more on that at this link). It starts on the lower side of the Scorecard in the Number 24 slot, and I expect it to slip closer to where Once Upon A Time is within the next week or so. Slipping this week due to low ratings are Syfy’s Ghost Wars and Superstition as well as FOX’s Ghosted (it was a bad week for ghosts). Arrow rebounded some from its Thanksgiving week drop as expected. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through December 3rd (metric definitions below):
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Live+7 Avg Rtg | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 3.85 | 0.50 | 670.0% | 6.40 | Renewal Likely |
| 2 (2) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 1.10 | 0.50 | 120.7% | 2.47 | Renewed |
| 3 (3) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.93 | 0.48 | 91.3% | 1.68 | Renewal Likely |
| 4 (4) | Outlander | Starz | 0.32 | 0.20 | 60.4% | 0.60 | Renewed |
| 5 (5) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.61 | 0.48 | 26.7% | 1.10 | Renewal Possible |
| 6 (6) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.59 | 0.48 | 21.1% | 1.18 | Renewal Possible |
| 7 (8) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.55 | 0.48 | 13.7% | 0.92 | Renewal Possible |
| 7 (9) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.55 | 0.48 | 13.7% | 0.94 | Renewal Likely |
| 9 (11) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.54 | 0.48 | 11.2% | 0.96 | Renewal Possible |
| 10 (7) | Ghosted (O) | FOX | 1.13 | 1.04 | 8.7% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 11 (10) | The Gifted (O) | FOX | 1.10 | 1.04 | 6.3% | 2.22 | Renewal Possible |
| 12 (12) | Z Nation | Syfy | 0.17 | 0.17 | 1.8% | 0.37 | Renewal Likely |
| 13 (13) | The Orville (O) | FOX | 1.01 | 1.04 | -2.3% | 2.26 | Renewed |
| 14 (14) | Gotham | FOX | 0.90 | 1.04 | -13.0% | 1.58 | Renewal Possible |
| 15 (15) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 1.19 | 1.45 | -18.3% | 1.98 | Renewed |
| 16 (16) | Channel Zero (O) | Syfy | 0.14 | 0.17 | -18.6% | n/a | Renewed |
| 17 (17) | The Last Man on Earth (O) | FOX | 0.84 | 1.04 | -19.1% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 18 (18) | Lucifer | FOX | 0.84 | 1.04 | -19.2% | 1.50 | Renewal Possible |
| 19 (19) | Stan Against Evil | IFC | 0.06 | 0.08 | -21.9% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 20 (20) | Mr Robot (O) | USA | 0.22 | 0.30 | -26.3% | 0.48 | Renewal Possible |
| 21 (21) | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.12 | 0.17 | -29.4% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 22 (22) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.82 | 1.17 | -29.5% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 23 (23) | Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) | ABC | 0.76 | 1.11 | -31.6% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 24 (n/a) | Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) | ABC | 0.70 | 1.11 | -36.7% | n/a | Renewed |
| 25 (24) | Superstition | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -46.1% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 26 (26) | The Inhumans (O) (F) | ABC | 0.59 | 1.11 | -47.1% | 1.13 | Cancellation Likely |
| 27 (25) | Ghost Wars | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -49.3% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 28 (28) | Once Upon A Time (O) (F) | ABC | 0.56 | 1.11 | -49.7% | 1.13 | On the Bubble |
| 29 (29) | The Shannara Chronicles (O) | Spike | 0.09 | 0.20 | -54.3% | 0.30 | Cancellation Likely |
| 30 (30) | The Exorcist (O) (F) | FOX | 0.43 | 1.04 | -58.9% | 0.70 | On the Bubble |
| 31 (31) | Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency | BBCA | 0.07 | 0.30 | -76.7% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
