The scorecard ranks the currently airing sci fi and fantasy television shows based on their overnight ratings vs. the network average for non-repeat, non-special, non-sports programming for the broadcast networks or vs. the network benchmark for the cable shows (essentially the minimum renewal level). This is designed to give comparative data for shows that will indicate if they are performing well vs. the other programming on that network. The ranking is based on the percentage variance between a show’s season to date average and its network’s benchmark with positive variances on the top and negative on the bottom.
These rankings will not tell you which shows definitely will get cancelled and which ones definitely will be back for another season, especially at this early point in Fall. But they will at least provide some guidance in that direction. For example, Ghosted and The Gifted look pretty good at Number 5 and 6 on the list, but both started strong and have slipped since their debuts. A few more weeks will give a clearer picture on these and all of the shows in the rankings.
Last season, I took FOX’s Empire out of the network averages because its numbers were high enough to skew the mean. It has come back down to Earth this season, so I am no longer excluding it. I considered taking out NBC’s This Is Us and CBS’ Big Bang Theory this season because they could be counted as outliers. But I went ahead and left them in which will skew the averages for those two networks just a bit.
Expect the rankings to continue to shift for a few more weeks before stabilizing, but here are a few shows worth noting at his point:
As expected, American Horror Story, Outlander, and The Flash top the rankings. Those first two shows have already been renewed and The Flash will certainly race into a fifth season.
The season to date average for The Orville is based on its Thursday numbers only because its two Sunday airings were skewed by the lead-in from football, and I believe that FOX will judge this show based on its Thursday performance. And even though it is currently below the network’s average, it is still doing well enough on that very competitive night.
Supergirl‘s ratings, which are currently on the low side, will almost certainly not matter because a fourth season gets it to the episode count preferred by the syndication market, and that is where shows really start to turn a profit.
Gotham‘s ratings may be a secondary consideration and its survival into a fifth season will almost certainly depend on what sort of deal Warner Bros. is willing to offer FOX if they want the show to continue.
The Good Place looks low for its network just like it did last season, but it is performing well enough for an NBC comedy going up against Thursday competition.
Dirk Gently is at the bottom of the listings just like it was for most of last season, but its deal with Netflix saved it before and may do so again.
I give a rundown of all the shows On the Bubble at this link.
Note that shows running on the streaming services are not included in the rankings because those networks do not share their viewership numbers. And import shows like Doctor Who will not be included in the rankings because their survival is determined more heavily on their performance in their home countries.
Following are the rankings for all the currently airing Fall shows based on the ratings through October 15th (metric definitions below):
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Live+7 Avg Rtg | Status |
| 1 | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 1.26 | 0.50 | 152.7% | n/a | Renewed |
| 2 | The Flash (O) | CW | 1.10 | 0.54 | 103.7% | n/a | Renewal Likely |
| 3 | Outlander | Starz | 0.32 | 0.20 | 61.0% | n/a | Renewed |
| 4 | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.80 | 0.54 | 48.1% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 5 | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.70 | 0.54 | 29.6% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 6 | The Gifted (O) | FOX | 1.35 | 1.13 | 19.6% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 7 | Ghosted (O) | FOX | 1.27 | 1.13 | 12.2% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 8 | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.60 | 0.54 | 11.1% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 8 | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.60 | 0.54 | 11.1% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 10 | Mr Robot (O) | USA | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.0% | n/a | Renewed |
| 11 | Z Nation | Syfy | 0.16 | 0.17 | -3.9% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 12 | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.50 | 0.54 | -7.4% | n/a | Renewal Likely |
| 13 | The Orville (O) | FOX | 1.03 | 1.13 | -9.2% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 14 | Lucifer | FOX | 1.00 | 1.13 | -11.4% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 15 | Channel Zero (O) | Syfy | 0.15 | 0.17 | -14.7% | n/a | Renewed |
| 16 | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.14 | 0.17 | -17.6% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 17 | Gotham | FOX | 0.93 | 1.13 | -18.1% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 18 | The Last Man on Earth (O) | FOX | 0.90 | 1.13 | -20.3% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 19 | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 1.28 | 1.61 | -20.6% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 20 | Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) | ABC | 0.90 | 1.22 | -26.2% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 21 | MacGyver (O) | CBS | 0.80 | 1.27 | -37.0% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 22 | The Inhumans (O) | ABC | 0.73 | 1.22 | -39.9% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 23 | Ghost Wars | Syfy | 0.10 | 0.17 | -41.2% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 24 | Once Upon A Time (O) | ABC | 0.70 | 1.22 | -42.6% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 25 | The Shannara Chronicles (O) | Spike | 0.10 | 0.20 | -50.0% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 26 | The Exorcist (O) | FOX | 0.43 | 1.13 | -61.6% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 27 | Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency | BBCA | 0.07 | 0.30 | -76.7% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
It’s a shame to see “Dirk Gently” and “Shannara” struggling like this – I’ve found “Dirk Gently” to be one of the smarter, more entertaining, and charming shows on TV, feeling a lot like an energetic and eccentric “Doctor Who” spin-off, while “Shannara Chronicles” has been generally well-meaning and inoffensive at its worst, and fun light escapism at worse (the sort of thing I can turn on in the background while working on something else and enjoy without worrying too much about losing the plot). Both of these shows deserve better than to be ignored by genre fans.
Similarly, I’ve been enjoying “MacGyver” better than I thought I would – it’s a shame to see this one struggling as well, I thought it did a great job of reviving and updating the original series and does a great job of scratching an itch I didn’t know I still had for something in the spirit of “Mission: Impossible”. Again, it’s a show that deserves better than to be ignored by genre fans, and especially by fans of the original series.
“The Orville” has been a lot more fun than I expected as well, and I’m surprised this show isn’t doing better – so far, to me it’s been like all the best parts of a “Star Trek” revival, with a surprisingly sharp and restrained sense of humor… it looks like “Star Trek”, it sounds like “Star Trek”, the stories feel like “Star Trek” stories (especially “Next Generation” era Trek), and the heart of the “Star Trek” moral and ethical spirit is there even in stories that at first glance seem like affectionate “Star Trek” parodies, but still prove to be some pretty serious business by treating even seemingly comedic stories with a fair amount of gravity and seriousness where appropriate. It’s clearly made by a Trek fan for Trek fans, I think it’s doing a great job of delivering classic Trek goods with a unique spin to them, and with so many “Star Trek” fans demanding more Trek, I really can’t believe that “The Orville” isn’t getting a warmer reception or more support from that fanbase.
I didn’t know “The Exorcist” was back – it didn’t really interest me last season, but I’m willing to give it another try.
I did try SyFy’s “Ghost Wars”; I’m already feeling kind of cold towards SyFy after the cancellation of “Dark Matter”, and “Ghost Wars” really isn’t doing anything to generate any replacement good will: I found the “Ghost Wars” pilot lifeless an uninteresting, and I really don’t feel inclined toward sticking around to see if it gets any better for me. Fans of some of SyFy’s previous shows (“Killjoys”, “Wynona Earp”, “Aftermath”, “Helix”, “Warehouse 13”, “Eureka”, “Haven”) might dig “Ghost Wars” and should probably give it a try – I suppose it’s got something of the same general tone and feel to it – but I really don’t think this one is for me.