Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.
Renewal Chances: As we head into the May Upfronts for the broadcast networks I will be looking at some of this season’s marginal series and considering their chances for renewal. FOX’s Sleepy Hollow wrapped up its fourth season at the end of March, and its linear ratings–which were already sliding in its third year–were down 38%. Of course, the network claimed last year that the overnights were not that important for this show because it had been seeing decent delayed viewing gains and it had a very strong international audience. That will be tested this season, though, as the show only had a 0.5 rating season average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic and that only improved to a 0.9 score once Live+7 viewing was factored in. The show is also well short of the preferred 88 episode count that the domestic syndication market prefers to see. Sleepy Hollow has 62 episodes through its fourth season, and would only get to 75-78 if it were to get its typical 13-18 episode renewal for a fifth season. But the streaming market does like a show that wraps up its storylines, and the fourth season finale still left several big issues for this one to resolve.
Considering FOX’s claims of the international support the show has and also that it is already profitable to them, there is still a chance that Sleepy Hollow could get one final season to tidy up its story arcs. Its ratings definitely have to be an eyesore for the network, but if it will play better to binge-watching and international syndication by wrapping up its story, the network may decide to keep it around a bit longer to plug up an hour on low-viewership Fridays. I am keeping this one On the Bubble, but consider it to be leaning more heavily toward Cancellation Likely status. If it does get that final season nod, though, I would not be too surprised. If there are any fans left out there–and I have not heard much noise from them since that tragic third season finale–they definitely need to make a Call to Action right now. A strong show of support could be the deciding factor and shift the network executives toward a renewal nod.
Ratings Results of Interest: On Sunday, AMC’s Into the Badlands slipped to a 0.48 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic with 1.3 million total viewers. That show is doing well with delayed viewing (more important to the cable channels than the broadcast nets), so I believe it is still okay at the moment. Over on FOX, neither Making History nor The Last Man on Earth received much help from scheduling as the former did not have its usual lead-in from The Simpsons and the latter had only a repeat of Family Guy as its lead-in. The ratings for the two were a 0.6 score with 1.3 million total viewers and a 0.8 score with 1.7 million total viewers respectively. On Saturday, Samurai Jack had a 0.68 rating with 1.3 million total viewers for Adult Swim and you have to wonder if they would like to have another season or two of that one (its current revival season has been designated as its last). On BBC America, Doctor Who spin-off Class slipped to a 0.08 rating with 310K total viewers, but that one’s survival is more heavily dependent on how it performs over in Britain. Be sure to keep up with the ratings results on a regular basis at our Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.
Scorecard: Not much movement in the Scorecard this week which is what I would expect at this point in the season. iZombie did slip down a few more slots, but I believe it will hold about where it is for the rest of the season.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard based on the ratings through April 23rd (metric definitions below):
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Live+7 Avg Rtg | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead | AMC | 5.39 | 0.60 | 798.2% | 7.95 | Renewed |
| 2 (2) | American Horror Story | FX | 1.58 | 0.60 | 162.5% | 3.16 | Renewed |
| 3 (3) | The Flash (O) | CW | 1.07 | 0.51 | 109.7% | 1.89 | Renewed |
| 4 (4) | Into the Badlands | AMC | 0.98 | 0.60 | 62.5% | 1.70 | Renewal Possible |
| 5 (5) | The Magicians | Syfy | 0.31 | 0.20 | 54.6% | 0.73 | Renewed |
| 6 (6) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.78 | 0.51 | 51.9% | 1.37 | Renewed |
| 7 (7) | Star Wars Rebels | DXD | 0.14 | 0.10 | 44.7% | 0.34 | Renewed |
| 8 (8) | Westworld | HBO | 0.80 | 0.60 | 33.8% | 1.50 | Renewed |
| 9 (10) | Son of Zorn (O) | FOX | 1.28 | 1.00 | 27.3% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 10 (9) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.65 | 0.51 | 27.1% | 1.16 | Renewed |
| 11 (11) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.64 | 0.51 | 25.4% | 1.13 | Renewed |
| 12 (12) | Z Nation | Syfy | 0.25 | 0.20 | 24.3% | 0.42 | Renewed |
| 13 (13) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.61 | 0.51 | 19.5% | 1.11 | Renewed |
| 14 (14) | Gotham | FOX | 1.14 | 1.00 | 13.2% | 1.88 | Renewal Likely |
| 15 (15) | Shadowhunters | Free | 0.28 | 0.25 | 11.2% | 0.50 | Renewal Likely |
| 16 (16) | Lucifer | FOX | 1.08 | 1.00 | 8.1% | 1.85 | Renewed |
| 17 (17) | Stan Against Evil | IFC | 0.08 | 0.08 | -4.7% | n/a | Renewed |
| 18 (18) | The Librarians | TNT | 0.47 | 0.50 | -5.2% | 0.88 | Renewed |
| 19 (19) | Channel Zero | Syfy | 0.19 | 0.20 | -5.8% | 0.38 | Renewed |
| 20 (20) | The Last Man on Earth (O) | FOX | 0.93 | 1.00 | -6.9% | 1.48 | Renewal Possible |
| 21 (21) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 1.25 | 1.40 | -10.6% | 1.91 | Renewed |
| 22 (22) | Colony | USA | 0.26 | 0.30 | -12.6% | 0.60 | Renewed |
| 23 (23) | The Expanse | Syfy | 0.17 | 0.20 | -15.0% | 0.39 | Renewed |
| 24 (24) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 1.08 | 1.29 | -16.9% | 1.74 | Renewed |
| 25 (25) | Guardians of the Galaxy | DXD | 0.08 | 0.10 | -17.5% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 26 (26) | People of Earth | TBS | 0.33 | 0.40 | -18.1% | n/a | Renewed |
| 27 (27) | Incorporated | Syfy | 0.16 | 0.20 | -20.0% | 0.34 | Cancelled |
| 28 (29) | Timeless | NBC | 1.11 | 1.40 | -20.4% | 2.07 | Cancellation Likely |
| 29 (28) | Aftermath | Syfy | 0.16 | 0.20 | -20.8% | 0.33 | Cancelled |
| 30 (30) | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.16 | 0.20 | -21.3% | 0.30 | Renewed |
| 31 (31) | Ash vs Evil Dead | STARZ | 0.16 | 0.20 | -21.5% | 0.34 | Renewed |
| 32 (32) | The 100 (O) | CW | 0.36 | 0.46 | -21.7% | 0.67 | Renewed |
| 33 (34) | Once Upon A Time (O) | ABC | 0.94 | 1.23 | -23.5% | 1.58 | On the Bubble |
| 34 (33) | Making History (O) | NBC | 0.70 | 0.92 | -23.9% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 35 (36) | Legion (O) | FX | 0.45 | 0.60 | -25.0% | 1.17 | Renewed |
| 36 (37) | Teen Wolf | MTV | 0.22 | 0.30 | -25.7% | 0.44 | Final Season |
| 37 (38) | The Originals (O) (F) | CW | 0.34 | 0.46 | -26.5% | 0.65 | Renewal Possible |
| 38 (39) | Vampire Diaries (O) (F) | CW | 0.38 | 0.51 | -26.7% | 0.75 | Ended |
| 39 (35) | iZombie (O) | CW | 0.33 | 0.46 | -28.0% | 0.70 | Renewal Possible |
| 40 (40) | The Strain | FX | 0.42 | 0.60 | -30.8% | 0.85 | Renewed |
| 41 (41) | The Exorcist (O) (F) | FOX | 0.67 | 1.00 | -33.2% | 1.09 | Cancellation Likely |
| 42 (42) | The Leftovers | HBO | 0.37 | 0.60 | -39.2% | n/a | Final Season |
| 43 (43) | Scream Queens (O) | FOX | 0.61 | 1.00 | -39.2% | 0.96 | Cancellation Likely |
| 44 (44) | Agents of SHIELD (O) | ABC | 0.74 | 1.23 | -39.7% | 1.61 | Cancellation Likely |
| 45 (45) | Beyond | Free | 0.14 | 0.25 | -42.7% | n/a | Renewed |
| 46 (46) | Grimm (O) (F) | NBC | 0.80 | 1.40 | -42.8% | 1.43 | Ended |
| 47 (47) | Powerless (O) | NBC | 0.70 | 1.25 | -44.1% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 48 (48) | Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) | FOX | 0.51 | 0.92 | -44.8% | 0.94 | On the Bubble |
| 49 (49) | Emerald City (O) (F) | NBC | 0.69 | 1.25 | -45.0% | 1.23 | Cancellation Likely |
| 50 (50) | Frequency (O) | CW | 0.28 | 0.51 | -45.8% | 0.51 | Cancellation Likely |
| 51 (51) | Salem | WGN | 0.08 | 0.15 | -48.0% | n/a | Cancelled |
| 52 (52) | Falling Water | USA | 0.15 | 0.30 | -51.0% | 0.30 | Renewed |
| 53 (53) | Time After Time | ABC | 0.53 | 1.22 | -57.1% | 0.70 | Cancelled |
| 54 (54) | Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency | BBCA | 0.09 | 0.40 | -77.5% | n/a | Renewed |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier). For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
