Cancellation Watch Hit List: Falling Water is Likely to be Cancelled, Son of Zorn is on the Bubble, The Librarians is Likely to be Renewed

The Cancellation Watch Hit List December 2016:

The Fall season has pretty much wrapped up now (there are still a few shows with their season finales this week as you can see at this link), and we have a good understanding of where all this year’s shows currently stand.  Only two more shows have moved  into the Cancellation Likely category since the last Hit List, and there has only been one cancellation announcement since that last time around (see the commentary below for the details).  This list stack ranks all the currently airing and returning shows based on how likely they are to continue for another season and it also includes the most recent cancellations.  I have comments on the shows in the category sections below and you can also click on the links in the table to go to the show pages to see season to date ratings and status updates.  You can see the prior Hit Lists at this link.

See below for category and metric definitions.

Cancelled: WGN’s Salem has joined this category since the last Hit List came out.  That series has barely registered in the ratings in its third season (with only a 0.08 average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demo), but I still thought it would get a fourth season because we have been seeing that trend lately from these low-rated cable entries.  That would give it a binge-worthy run of over 50 episodes, but apparently WGN decided to cap that one out at just 39.

Cancellation Likely: I’m moving USA’s Falling Water to Cancellation Likely at this point considering how low its linear ratings have been thus far and the fact that it has not seen much in the way of delayed viewing gains. It could have international financing backing it that could carry it into a second season, but apart from that I consider this likely another one-season-and-done casualty of the Too-Much-TV Era. I have also moved Frequency into this category even though I hate making that call on a show from renewal-happy CW.  But as one of that network’s lowest rated entries which is continually losing over half the lead-in audience from Arrow, I have a hard time seeing it coming back for a second season.  The other three shows in this category–Agents of SHIELD, The Exorcist, and Scream Queens–remain from the last Hit List and I still consider all of them to be strong candidates for cancellation.

On the Bubble: BBC America’s Dirk Gently escaped Bubble status as I detail below in the Renewed but Struggling category.  FOX’s Son of Zorn has moved here even though its numbers are better than The Last Man on Earth (see the Renewal Possible category) because I believe it is expensive to produce and its higher season to date average is tied directly to stronger lead-ins from The Simpsons and/or NFL football.  But with FOX struggling so much this year, it could still survive into a second season.  Timeless continues to look very iffy for NBC as it sunk to a season low with its Fall finale.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the network schedule that one to a different hour when it returns from its Winter break which could act as a burn-off run.

Renewed Possible: I have taken FOX’s The Last Man on Earth off of Bubble status because its season to date average looks okay compared to the other shows on that struggling network and because it is a less expensive sitcom.  Syfy’s Incorporated has been at passable levels for that network so far since its late Fall debut.  But that one does not have an international partnership sharing production costs as shows like Killjoys and Van Helsing do, so if it slips much further I’m thinking Syfy execs will be disappointed with its performance.  But then that network typically gives its shows two seasons to prove themselves, so it still has a chance of surviving for another year.  ABC’s Once Upon A Time is at all-time low levels, but I’m not quite ready to move it to Bubble status just yet.  Don’t be surprised if the network announces this season or next as its last, though.

Renewal Likely: The Librarians has returned at about the same ratings levels as last season which is impressive considering most shows are seeing double digit losses year over year. Also factor in the stiff competition on Sunday nights, and give the show a bonus for its rabid fanbase, and I like its chances of coming back for a fourth year.  I still like the chances of Syfy’s Aftermath coming back for another season, even though its numbers have been down of late.  That comes as part of an international partnership with the Canadian Space Channel (as does Killjoys and Dark Matter) and Syfy typically gives its shows two years to prove themselves unless they are ratings disasters like last Spring’s Hunters.

Renewed but Struggling: Dirk Gently’s Holistic Detective Agency got the second season nod despite extremely low linear viewing numbers on BBC America.  I’m assuming the strength of its Netflix international partnership is what kept it alive, but I have to imagine the network would like to see higher viewership from that one.  Add on the fact that the show has received pretty bad reviews for its freshman year and I’m guessing it will go through some retooling before returning for its second round of episodes.

Renewed: Four shows joined this category since the last Hit List: People of Earth (TBS), Stan Against Evil (IFC), Luke Cage (Netflix), Z Nation.  I had the latter three of those shows pegged as Renewal Likely last time around, and People of Earth (previously at Renewal Possible) looked to be doing okay for TBS at the time its renewal was announced.

Unassailable: I have not added Westworld to this category yet, but based on the way it trended up in the ratings through most of its freshman season and that it was HBO’s most watched first-year series, I expect it to move here pretty quickly when it returns for its second season, depending on where its numbers land. And even though The Walking Dead is at four-year lows with its ratings, it is still the top-rated show on television and it’s not going anywhere anytime soon.  The Flash continues to race toward a fourth season renewal as it is currently The CW’s top-rated show.  And both Game of Thrones and Outlander are set through their next two seasons.

Metric Definitions:

Hit List Status: Category indicating the show’s cancellation/renewal prospects.

Cancelled/Ending: This includes cancelled shows from the current season as shows that are in or headed into their final seasons.  Mini-series that have wrapped their runs will be included here as well.

Cancellation Likely: These shows have seriously underperformed in their current season and appear surely headed to cancellation.

On the Bubble: These shows have delivered moderately low numbers which could put their renewal chances in jeopardy.

Renewal Possible: These shows may not be top performers, but are currently doing well enough that renewal looks like a decent possibility.

Renewal Likely: These shows have performed well enough so far in their current season that a renewal seems almost assured.

Renewed but Struggling:  This category captures those shows that have received a renewal notice, but they struggled in their current seasons and could likely be facing cancellation when they return.

Renewed: These shows performed well enough in their latest season to receive the renewal nod and should continue for another season if they hold steady.

Unassailable: These are the shows that face no chance of cancellation in their current/upcoming season and likely beyond that as well.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled (which are more granular than theHit List Status above). From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.

Live+7 Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the Live+7 delayed viewing numbers for the days that data is available.