Cancellation Watch Hit List: Agents of SHIELD is Likely to Get Cancelled, Timeless is On the Bubble, Z Nation is Likely to Get Renewed

UPDATED: For the Westworld renewal announcement.

We are now two months into the Fall season and the picture is coming into perspective on quite a number of the shows currently airing (and there are quite a number of shows). The good news is that not many are in the Cancellation Likely category at this point. The bad news is that quite a few are On the Bubble and close to moving into cancellation threat territory. This list stack ranks all the currently airing and returning shows based on how likely they are to continue for another season and it also includes the most recent cancellations.  I have comments on the shows in the category sections below and you can also click on the links in the table to go to the show pages to see season to date ratings and status updates.  You can see the prior Hit Lists at this link.

The Cancellation Watch Hit List November 2016:

See below for category and metric definitions.

Cancelled: Joining this group is Dead of Summer that aired this past Summer on Freeform. I had completely missed that one among the shows I have been tracking, and apparently a lot of people missed it as well because it didn’t have much of an audience (though actually better than Stitchers which got a third season renewal from the same network).

Cancellation Likely: I have only added two shows to this category this time around, though several are very close to getting the bump (more on that in the On the Bubble section). Scream Queens is currently FOX’s second lowest rated show next to The Exorcist, which was moved to this category last time around. The chances are slim of SQ seeing a third year at this point, and its two seasons will likely get tacked on to the American Horror Story syndication package (which comes from the same studio and executive producers). ABC’s Agents of SHIELD looks it is now getting tossed in the schedule spackle territory with plenty of preemptions for the show in the near future. And I don’t believe that Disney will be saving this one a fourth time seeing how low its ratings currently stand.

On the Bubble: There are several of these shows that I consider very much Bubble entries and came close to moving them to the Cancellation Likely group. Among them, Falling Water has performed very poorly for USA thus far, but could have international partnerships / financing keeping it afloat. Dirk Gently has barely registered for BBC America, but its international Netflix distribution could keep it going to a second season. El Rey has released the actors of From Dusk Till Dawn, but has not officially cancelled the show yet and it’s hard to say what they will do since I don’t see numbers for the show (El Rey is not carried widely enough). And it certainly looks like The CW will tune out Frequency, unless they decide to be the Happy Net again and do another blanket renewal of their Fall shows. Not quite in as much trouble is FOX’s Son of Zorn which has decent season to date ratings results, but those are skewed by a spattering of strong lead-ins from football and other specials. That network’s The Last Man on Earth is on the low side this season ratings-wise, but it was there its first two seasons as well and still survived. NBC’s Timeless has been losing a fair amount of its lead-in from The Voice and only received a shortened full season order, but it is still hanging on at the moment. The numbers for WGN’s Salem are way down this season, but it has survived to the cable three season threshold, so it could still make it to a fourth season. Wayward Pines is still hanging around from Summer, and FOX could go either way on that one.

Renewal Possible: These shows have performed well enough that they could get a renewal nod, but I would not put any guarantees on them at the moment. Once Upon A Time continues to be ABC’s best rated Sunday show and will stick around as long as Disney wants use it as a vehicle to cycle its stable of characters through. Lucifer is only slightly below FOX’s season to date average and has received a full second season pickup. The Good Place continues to hold even with NBC’s Thursday lineup. People of Earth has not set off any ratings fireworks for TBS but has done probably well enough for a cable sitcom these days. And the Facebook page for Netflix’s Between seems to suggest that a third season of that show will happen.

Renewal Likely: Quite a number of the Fall shows have done well enough thus far that I am ready to put the odds of renewal pretty heavily in their favor. Syfy’s Z Nation is currently that network’s top rated show and Aftermath and Channel Zero are performing at or better than the levels that got Van Helsing a second season (Channel Zero actually came in with a second season renewal but I am considering its third year prospects). I’ve already heard rumors that a fourth season of Black Mirror will happen on Netflix and that seems likely considering the response to it so far. IFC’s new horror / comedy Stan Against Evil is performing well for that network and will likely scare up a second season. Arrow, Legends of Tomorrow, Supergirl, and Supernatural all look like locks for renewals for the fifth place network. And FOX’s Gotham is in the syndication stretch and should get that fourth year nod. Netflix’s Luke Cage will likely follow the pattern of the other Defenders entries and continue to a second season. And even though the super-expensive Westworld is probably pulling lower viewership than HBO hoped for, I can’t see them pulling the plug on it after one season.  (Update: as expected, Westworld has been renewed)

Renewed but Struggling: No shows have joined this category from the Fall entries and we will have to wait until next year to see how the shows currently here will perform once they return.

Renewed: There have been no new renewals since the last Hit List, though I expect some of the Fall shows (particularly the Syfy entries) to join this category by the end of the year. TNT’s The Librarians kicks off its third season this coming Sunday and I like its chances for a fourth year nod because of its fervent fanbase and the fact that it has made it to the cable third season threshold.

Unassailable: Despite all my talk of a the Walking Dexit, TWD is still the top-rated scripted series on all of television and I don’t believe this show will be facing a cancellation threat anytime soon. The Flash continues to lead the race among the CW shows, and it already has the third season guarantee in its pocket anyway. HBO’s Game of Thrones is currently set through its eighth and final season and Starz’s Outlander has been renewed through a fourth season.

Metric Definitions:

Hit List Status: Category indicating the show’s cancellation/renewal prospects.

Cancelled/Ending: This includes cancelled shows from the current season as shows that are in or headed into their final seasons.  Mini-series that have wrapped their runs will be included here as well.

Cancellation Likely: These shows have seriously underperformed in their current season and appear surely headed to cancellation.

On the Bubble: These shows have delivered moderately low numbers which could put their renewal chances in jeopardy.

Renewal Possible: These shows may not be top performers, but are currently doing well enough that renewal looks like a decent possibility.

Renewal Likely: These shows have performed well enough so far in their current season that a renewal seems almost assured.

Renewed but Struggling:  This category captures those shows that have received a renewal notice, but they struggled in their current seasons and could likely be facing cancellation when they return.

Renewed: These shows performed well enough in their latest season to receive the renewal nod and should continue for another season if they hold steady.

Unassailable: These are the shows that face no chance of cancellation in their current/upcoming season and likely beyond that as well.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled (which are more granular than theHit List Status above). From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.

Live+7 Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the Live+7 delayed viewing numbers for the days that data is available.