Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.
Episode Order Cut: FOX announced yesterday that they will be cutting the episode order for the mid-season time travel comedy Making History from thirteen to nine. That’s never a good sign, but the network claims the move was to fit the show into its tight scheduling for the second half of the season. And Deadline Hollywood did note that NBC cut the episode order of Superstore last season but it still got renewed. Still, time travel shows have not done well this season based on the ratings of Timeless and Frequency (why exactly did network execs think that would be the next big trend anyway?). This show comes EPs Phil Lord and Chris Miller, and the other two they are doing for FOX–Son of Zorn and The Last Man on Earth–have not proven themselves to be hits. The episode order cut is not necessarily a death knell for Making History, but it is rarely good news for any show.
Scorecard: As expected, AMC’s The Walking Dead entered the Scorecard at Number 1 and it will have a lock on that spot throughout the season. Entering on the other end is BBC America’s Dirk Gently’s Holistic Detective Agency which got off to a slow start. That one likely plays better internationally, so its Netflix partnership will be important to its survival. The Vampire Diaries entered low as well, but that is to be expected seeing as it is in its final season. There was not much other movement in the rankings since last week other than some incidental changes of a slot or two.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
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Broadcast network scorecard based on the ratings through October 27th (metric definitions below):
(Links are to the show pages on this site with season to date ratings results and status updates)
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Live+3 Avg Rtg | Cancel Alert |
| 1 | The Walking Dead | AMC | 8.36 | 0.60 | 1293.3% | n/a | Renewed |
| 2 | American Horror Story | FX | 1.49 | 0.60 | 148.8% | 3.30 | Renewed |
| 3 | The Flash (O) | CW | 1.10 | 0.60 | 83.3% | n/a | Low |
| 4 | Z Nation | Syfy | 0.33 | 0.20 | 65.0% | n/a | Low |
| 5 | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.93 | 0.60 | 55.6% | n/a | Low |
| 6 | Star Wars Rebels | DXD | 0.15 | 0.10 | 52.0% | n/a | Low |
| 7 | Son of Zorn (O) | FOX | 1.52 | 1.18 | 28.8% | 2.60 | Low |
| 8 | Westworld | HBO | 0.76 | 0.60 | 27.1% | 1.10 | Low |
| 9 | Channel Zero | Syfy | 0.24 | 0.20 | 18.3% | n/a | Low |
| 10 | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.68 | 0.60 | 12.5% | n/a | Low |
| 11 | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.67 | 0.60 | 11.1% | n/a | Low |
| 12 | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.63 | 0.60 | 5.6% | n/a | Low |
| 13 | Gotham | FOX | 1.15 | 1.18 | -2.6% | 2.00 | Low |
| 14 | Lucifer | FOX | 1.10 | 1.18 | -6.8% | 2.00 | Low |
| 15 | Aftermath | Syfy | 0.18 | 0.20 | -11.0% | n/a | Low |
| 16 | Ash vs Evil Dead | STARZ | 0.18 | 0.20 | -11.3% | n/a | Renewed |
| 17 | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.17 | 0.20 | -13.0% | n/a | Renewed |
| 18 | Timeless | NBC | 1.53 | 1.76 | -13.4% | n/a | Low |
| 19 | Once Upon A Time (O) | ABC | 1.14 | 1.33 | -14.2% | n/a | Low |
| 20 | The Last Man on Earth (O) | FOX | 0.98 | 1.18 | -17.4% | n/a | Moderate |
| 21 | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 1.26 | 1.60 | -21.4% | n/a | Low |
| 22 | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 1.33 | 1.76 | -24.7% | 2.65 | Low |
| 23 | The Strain | FX | 0.42 | 0.60 | -30.4% | 0.97 | Renewed |
| 24 | Vampire Diaries (O) (F) | CW | 0.40 | 0.60 | -33.3% | n/a | Final Season |
| 25 | Agents of SHIELD (O) | ABC | 0.88 | 1.33 | -33.8% | 2.00 | Medium |
| 26 | Scream Queens (O) | FOX | 0.75 | 1.18 | -36.5% | 1.50 | Medium |
| 27 | The Exorcist (O) (F) | FOX | 0.74 | 1.18 | -37.3% | n/a | Medium |
| 28 | Falling Water | USA | 0.17 | 0.30 | -44.4% | n/a | Medium |
| 29 | Frequency (O) | CW | 0.33 | 0.60 | -45.8% | n/a | Medium |
| 30 | Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency | BBCA | 0.12 | 0.40 | -70.0% | n/a | Moderate |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier). For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.
Variance: The variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the network mean.
Live+3 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows. Last year I had the Live+7 delayed viewing, but the availability of that data was very spotty so I am shifting to this metric.
Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.
Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers