Cancellation Watch Hit List: Hunters, Houdini & Doyle are Likely to Get Cancelled, 12 Monkeys, Wynonna Earp, and Stitchers are On the Bubble

You can find the latest edition of the Hit List at this link

We are into the Summer season now with several shows having kicked off already and several more debuting over the next few weeks. There are also a number of Spring shows either still airing or awaiting word on their fate. The Hit List (which replaces the Power Rankings) stack ranks all the currently airing and returning shows based on how likely they are to continue for another season and it also includes the most recent cancellations. I include comments on the shows in the category sections below and you can also click on the links in the table to go to the show pages to see season to date ratings and status updates.

The Cancellation Watch Hit List June 2016:

Cancelled/Ending: Although I’m still not sure ITV ever issued an official statement, it appears that Beowulf (which aired on Esquire in the States) is done, so I am going to count that one as cancelled. Hulu just announced the cancellation of its supernatural comedy Deadbeat which stars Tyler Labine. That’s not necessarily a surprise because I have not heard much buzz about the show through its three season, but I did not predict the cancellation either because it’s hard to tell where the streaming service shows stand since they do not share their numbers.  Most of the other recent cancellations I have covered in other posts, and you can see my full rundown of the 2015-16 season shows at this link.

Cancellation Likely: I don’t see any scenario where FOX’s import Houdini & Doyle will come back for a second season because its numbers have not been good on either side of the Atlantic and it has not been particularly well received by critics either. Syfy’s Hunters has been a Nielsen bottom-feeder pretty much since it debuted and it just got kicked to midnight on Mondays. You don’t stick a show into the witching hour if you have confidence in it.

On the Bubble: Of the Spring Syfy shows, I believe that Wynnona Earp has the best chance of getting a renewal, which I go into in more detail at this link. But that’s not guaranteed, and the recent shakeups at the network suggest a house-cleaning of their shows could come at any time. So Wynonna is not safe and sophomore entry 12 Monkeys is edging closer to the Cancellation Likely category with its poor numbers of late. Freeform’s Stitchers slipped pretty low in its second season, though “stickiness” in the social networks could help it. All three of these, as well as the two in the category above, count as Call to Action shows and could use some support if fans want them to stick around.

Renewal Possible: Orphan Black’s BBC America numbers have barely registered in its fourth season, but that show relies just as heavily on it viewership up in Canada (and I haven’t seen those stats). I wouldn’t be surprised if this one is looking at wrapping up around its fifth season, though, because that’s typically the way these Canadian entries roll. Penny Dreadful’s numbers have remained low in its third year, but I’m guessing Showtime will give it at least one more season if not more. MTV’s Scream just kicked off its second season with numbers lower than what it saw it first year, but it is registering well in the social nets which counts as a win for that network. We will have to see how it tracks over the coming weeks to get a better gauge. Wayward Pines returned down from last year, but not as bad as the drops several of FOX’s regular season shows saw (more on that at this link). If it does not sink too much further, it could come back for that third and final season that M. Night Shyamalan has planned. Chiller’s Slasher will live and die based on the strength of its international partnership with the Super Channel in Canada, so it is hard to make a good prediction on that one. PlayStation Network’s Powers just started its second season, and could get a third if the buzz on it remains good.

Renewal Likely: The numbers for AMC’s Preacher have looked good through its first two episodes and the reviews have been very positive, so I like its chances of getting a second season. Another round of The X-Files revival is pretty much a done deal, FOX is just trying to work out the scheduling and is currently targeting the 2017-18 season. Daredevil should almost certainly be back on Netflix for a third season, though it may run into scheduling conflicts with the other, inter-linked Defenders shows rolling out over the next year or so.

Renewed: Among the returning shows in the three renewed categories (Renewed but Struggling, Renewed, Unassailable, see descriptions below), most of the Summer entries that have not started yet look good going into their current seasons. The Strain definitely saw its numbers drop off during its second season, but if it can keep from slipping too much more it should be okay. Zoo started out its first season with decent numbers, but saw those drop by the time it wrapped up. If it slips any further, it’s definitely on the wrong network to be a struggling sci fi show. I expect The Last Ship to continue to sail full speed ahead, though it may suffer some from direct competition with Game of Thrones for its first few Season 3 eps. The survival of Syfy’s Dark Matter and Killjoys will continue to hedge heavily on their performance up north in Canada, though they may have built up enough buzz to improve their numbers in the States during their second seasons. And I expect Fear the Walking Dead to hold mostly steady when it returns on August 21st as it preps for its third season next year. For the renewals from this past season, you can see my rundown on those shows at this link.

Metric Definitions:

Hit List Status: Category indicating the show’s cancellation/renewal prospects.

Cancelled/Ending: This includes cancelled shows from the current season as shows that are in or headed into their final seasons.  Mini-series that have wrapped their runs will be included here as well.

Cancellation Likely: These shows have seriously underperformed in their current season and appear surely headed to cancellation.

On the Bubble: These shows have delivered moderately low numbers which could put their renewal chances in jeopardy.

Renewal Possible: These shows may not be top performers, but are currently doing well enough that renewal looks like a decent possibility.

Renewal Likely: These shows have performed well enough so far in their current season that a renewal seems almost assured.

Renewed but Struggling:  This category captures those shows that have received a renewal notice, but they struggled in their current seasons and could likely be facing cancellation when they return.

Renewed: These shows performed well enough in their latest season to receive the renewal nod and should continue for another season if they hold steady.

Unassailable: These are the shows that face no chance of cancellation in their current/upcoming season and likely beyond that as well.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled (which are more granular than the Hit List Status above). From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Net Avg:  The season to date average rating for the network for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat programming.  This data is available for the broadcast networks only.

Live+7 Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the Live+7 delayed viewing numbers for the days that data is available.