Sci Fi Cancellation Watch: The Ratings for The Expanse Slip Further, Can Online Viewing Keep it Afloat? Plus the Full Ratings Roundup

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9 years ago

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Last Tuesday’s episode of Syfy’s The Expanse saw the show take a notable drop to a 0.15 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic with about 680 thousand total viewers. Its numbers were already at questionable levels for its debut week where it averaged a 0.3 rating for its first two episodes, the level at which Defiance and Dominion were performing this past Summer before getting cancelled. With The Expanse‘s numbers now dropping even further, it definitely looks to be on thin ice, at least as far as its ratings performance goes. The show does have two things going for it right now, though. One, Syfy has been pushing hard for online viewing. The first episode was released early online and then eps three and four were released well before their linear viewing dates (the fourth episode airred on Syfy for the first time last night and we will see those ratings in a day or two). I have watched all four episodes online and they have rather long commercial breaks, much longer that what you see on Hulu. So I am guessing that Syfy has leveraged a fair amount of its advertising exposure to digital viewing, which makes since considering the network’s tech-savvy audience. And if the streaming numbers are good (the first ep reportedly had one and a half million views online before its debut), perhaps they can offset the low ratings from the linear airings. The second thing in the show’s favor is the fact that Syfy has been willing to give its series a second season even if they drew only mediocre or poor ratings in their first. We have seen this the last couple of years with shows like Dominion, Helix, and 12 Monkeys. But the bad news that goes along with that is that the first two of those three were cancelled after their second seasons and 12 Monkeys could be headed down that path if its numbers don’t improve when it returns in April. The fact is that The Expanse is an expensive show to produce and if it is not making enough money from advertising revenue (which they don’t get from DVR viewing) then Syfy will not be able to afford to keep it around. I do believe they will give it every chance because it is a high profile series and they are trying to play it up as their Game of Thrones in space. But unless online viewership can be counted in the millions on a consistent basis, then this show could very well be facing an uncertain future.

Only a few shows had new episodes airing last week and their information is included below. The broadcast and cable scorecards will return in two weeks once mid-season kicks into gear.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Monday December 21st thru Sunday December 27th (metric definitions below):

On hiatus, returns February 29th.

On hiatus, returns January 4th.

Season Ended. Fans are trying to convince FOX to give the show another chance, though, so maybe it’s not dead yet.

Repeat. Resumes new episodes on January 19th.

On hiatus, returns March 8th.

Repeat. Resumes new episodes on January 12th.

Season ended and this one is likely limited-run-and-done.

On hiatus, returns January 5th.

This show saw a notable drop from its already low numbers from the prior week which is not a good thing. More on this one above.

Repeat. Resumes new episodes on January 20th.

Repeat. Resumes new episodes on January 20th.

On hiatus.

On hiatus, returns January 6th.

On hiatus, returns January 28th (when it shifts to Fridays).

On hiatus, returns January 7th.

On hiatus, returns January 28th (when it shifts to Fridays).

On hiatus, returns February 5th (when it shifts to Fridays).

This show’s Christmas Special pulled decent ratings for a holiday airing and it appears it is moving forward with its tenth season.

Series Ended.

On hiatus, returns January 22nd.

Season ended. Returns Fall 2016 with its third season.

It slipped slightly from the prior week, but it has already been renewed for a second season.

Season ended. Returns Fall 2016 with its second season.

On hiatus, returns March 6th.

This show improved for its Season 2 finale and it returns for its third season next year (this time with thirteen episodes).

On hiatus, returns February 14th.

Season ended. Returns Fall 2016 with its third and final season.

On hiatus, no scheduled return yet.

Season Ended. Awaiting word on its second season.

Be sure keep an eye out for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week at the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site. You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page and also the latest Sci Fi TV Power Rankings post. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

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Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

% Chng PW: The percentage change +/- for this week’s rating vs. last week’s rating.

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers (age 2+) to tune in to the episode for same day viewing.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Net Avg: The season to date average rating for the network for non-sports programming and non-repeats. This data is available for the broadcast networks only.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.