Sci Fi Cancellation Watch: When Will We Find Out the Fate of Struggling Shows Like Minority Report and Sleepy Hollow? Plus the Full Ratings Round Up

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

So we already know that quite a number of the broadcast network shows are struggling in the ratings this year, and FOX’s Minority Report had its episode order cut from thirteen to ten episodes which acts as a de facto cancellation these days. But I am sure that many sci fi / fantasy fans out there are wondering when we will know for certain the fates of these shows? Their prospects may look bleak at the moment, but the networks are having a bad season in general which could give hope to some struggling shows.

Well unfortunately, chances are that we may not know the final fates of many of this season’s shows until May, when the networks announce their schedules for the 2016-17 season. The fact is that the broadcast networks hate to announce cancellations, thus the recent trend of trimming episode orders for shows instead of just cancelling them. They basically want to hedge their bets and keep all their options open until the last minute. Last season, NBC capped out Constantine at thirteen episodes which essentially acted as the show’s cancellation. But they did still listen to a second season pitch from the producers late in the season before officially cancelling the show in May. And if you ask FOX execs right now, I’m betting they would tell you that they have not closed the door on a second season of Minority Report. But I know I’m sure not putting any money on that one coming back for another year. Unfortunately, though, it’s now wait and see on that one and Sleepy Hollow and Heroes Reborn and Agents of SHIELD and many more, because I don’t expect any final announcements for a while. It is possible that one or more of the nets could go into panic mode and do a complete revamp of their schedule at mid-season (FOX is the best candidate for that), but they still may not announce any cancellations. They may shuffle their schedule around and yank some shows off, but they will continue to remain mum on the shows to be sent to the Network Executioner.

We might hear word on a few renewals as NBC has just announced conspiracy/procedural series Blindspot will be getting a second season. But few of the broadcast network sci fi / fantasy shows are currently performing at levels that would assure their return at the moment. Supergirl came out of the gate strong for CBS, but dropped notably with its second episode, and I’m sure they are waiting for it to level off right now. Last season, The CW renewed all of their Fall shows in January, but then that network was having one of its best seasons in a while at that point which is not true of this year. I’m thinking they may wait a little bit longer before pulling the trigger this time around, though you can be assured that The Flash and Arrow will both be back. But it is the waiting game for now for most of the broadcast network entries, so sci fi fans will need to have patience and hope for the best for their shows.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Monday November 2nd thru Sunday November 9th (metric definitions below):

(Updated for chart activity in the broadcast network and cable channel Top 25)

It improved from the prior week despite strong competition and it is still one of FOX’s best performing scripted shows, so it remains safe for now.

The drop was expected as that has been the typical trend for non-CW superhero shows. But it is still performing well above the current average for CBS and looks likely to fly into a second season.

Chart Activity: It slipped out of the Weekly Nielsen Twitter Ratings for its second episode. In the broadcast network Top 25 based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic, it slipped to Number 15 (down from Number 11) and in the Top 25 based on total viewers it slipped to Number 16 (down from Number 13).

Three more episodes for this show and then it is likely off to the TV Wasteland. But FOX will probably not make the official announcement until next May.

For the first time ever, this show beat Agents of SHIELD in both the ratings and in total viewers. The Flash is a sure bet to stick around for at least a couple more seasons, assuming The CW can keep its doors open that long.

It held low and if it doesn’t start showing some improvement then I believe its chances are tenuous despite its third season show status. More on that at this link.

It held at slightly better numbers for a second week in a row, but I still believe this one gets shifted on the schedule at mid-season.

It continues to hold low and it has fallen off the Weekly Nielsen Twitter Ratings Top 10. I’m thinking this one just gets tacked on to the American Horror Story syndication package as a bonus season (FOX owns both shows).

It improved one tick from last week and it still looks okay for now.

Chart Activity: This show remained out of the broadcast network Top 25 based on total viewers for a second week in a row.

John Constantine’s appearance brought a 22% improvement to this show’s ratings. Sign him up as a regular!

It slipped back down this last week, but its renewal hinges less on the ratings and more on whether the cast and crew want to come back for another year.

It continues to hold around the same level as it waits for confirmation of its third season.

This show continues to sink, but I believe it gets at least one more season to give it a more attractive syndication package.

Chart Activity: It slipped to Number 7 in the Weekly Nielsen Twitter Ratings (down from Number 3). In the cable Top 25 based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic it was at Number 6 (down from Number 5) and in the Top 25 based on total viewers it was at Number 20 (down from Number 18).

It held steady, but I still believe that this season or next will be when they decided to wrap up this show.

Without competition from football on CBS, this show saw a notable improvement. NBC might consider keeping it around at these levels to pad out the Heroes syndication package.

It remained low, but it is almost guaranteed another year because of its third season show status.

As expected, this show slipped back down after its Bones cross-over episode. Don’t expect a fourth season from this one.

This show held steady as it airs out its final season.

It slipped from its season premiere and I have to believe that NBC has told the producers to keep an eye on the end game as this could be its last season.

It slipped back down, but it received its third season renewal notice (as expected) last week.

With no Trick or Treaters to contend with, this one improved on Saturday. And it appears that the ball is rolling for this show’s tenth season.

It held steady with its debut and this show has already been renewed for a second season.

It held mostly steady and this show has already been renewed for a second season.

It improved slightly from last week and it was the highest rated scripted show on the broadcast nets on Sunday, so it remains safe for now.

It held mostly steady with its Season 2 debut numbers and looks to be safe for now.

It slipped but it is still the top rated scripted show on all of television and it has already been renewed for a seventh season.

Chart Activity: It held steady at Number 2 in the Weekly Nielsen Twitter Ratings. In the cable Top 25 based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic and based on total viewers it was at Number 1 for the week, scoring a nice victory over Monday Night Football on ESPN .

It improved some from last week, but you have to keep asking how many new subscribers it is bring to HBO? That’s what it is all about for the premium cable channels.

This show slipped back down and its fate is precarious at the moment. If FOX decides to do a schedule revamp at mid-season, this one could end up on the wrong side of that.

Be sure keep an eye out for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week at theCancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site. You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page and also the latest Sci Fi TV Power Rankings post. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

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Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

% Chng PW: The percentage change +/- for this week’s rating vs. last week’s rating.

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers (age 2+) to tune in to the episode for same day viewing.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Net Avg: The season to date average rating for the network for non-sports programming and non-repeats. This data is available for the broadcast networks only.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily