The TV Grim Reaper (Formerly the Cancellation Bear) Considers Minority Report Cancelled And Sleepy Hollow Likely to Get the Ax

The former Cancellation Bear is now the TV Grim Reaper and he continues with his predictions on the fate of the broadcast network shows at his own site.  He uses a statistically sound comparison of a show’s ratings to those of the other scripted entries on the same network which has been quite accurate over the years (more info on his process at this link).  You can see his full predictions for all the broadcast network shows at www.tvgrimreaper.com.  You can also follow him on Twitter where he is very active and loves to interact with his followers.

Here are his latest predictions on the Fall sci fi / fantasy through the first three weeks of the season along with my thoughts.

ABC

Once Upon A Time: more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016
Agents of SHIELD: certain to be renewed by May, 2016

I concur with his prediction on Once Upon A Time, but I’m not quite willing to give Agents of SHIELD the third season show protection for the following reasons: it’s expensive, it’s ratings are below the network average, it could be packaged with Agent Carter for syndication and have an acceptable episode count, ABC is queuing up Marvel’s Most Wanted as a potential Avengers tie-in replacement (and that could be added to the AoS / AC syndication package as well).

You can see his predictions for all the currently airing ABC shows at this link.

CBS

Limitless: more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016

I concur with this prediction. You can see his predictions for all the currently airing CBS shows at this link.

FOX

Minority Report: Cancelled
Scream Queens: toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2016
The Last Man on Earth: more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016
Sleepy Hollow: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2016
Gotham: certain to be renewed by May, 2016

Even though Minority Report has not officially been cancelled, the TV Grim Reaper is playing Captain Obvious here and I concur with that and his assessment of Sleepy Hollow and Scream Queens. I believe he is too optimistic about The Last Man on Earth, especially considering its most recent drop.  And while his calculations may suggest Gotham is okay, I have to wonder if FOX isn’t considering a total schedule revamp at the moment (and populating it with nothing but Empire spin-offs and knock-offs) and all of its shows might be in danger.  You can see his predictions for all the currently airing FOX shows at this link.

NBC

Heroes Reborn: more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016

He hasn’t changed the status of Heroes Reborn despite its notable drop last week and perhaps he is factoring in the possibility that this show is just padding out the Heroes syndication package.  But I have that show at a Medium Cancellation Alert status at the moment. You can see his predictions for all the currently airing NBC shows at this link.

The CW

Vampire Diaries: toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2016
iZombie: more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016
Arrow: certain to be renewed by May, 2016
The Flash: certain to be renewed by May, 2016
The Originals: certain to be renewed by May, 2016
Supernatural: certain to be renewed by May, 2016

I concur with this assessment on most of these shows, but I don’t believe that Vampire Diaries will get cancelled.  If The CW decides the numbers are too low they will either announce this as the last season and give the show time to wrap up all its storylines or renew it for one final, shortened season.  That latter option I believe is most likely because that’s the way the network typically roles with its longer running shows.

You can see his predictions for all the currently airing CW shows at this link.