Cancellation Watch: Can Either Heaven or Hell Save Constantine at this Point?

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy airing Friday Nov 14th thru Monday Nov 17th (analysis and metric definitions below):

Haven Syfy Fri 11/14 7 PM
Rating: 0.2 | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.9 | StD Rating: 0.2 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

No good news here as this show continues to pull low numbers while airing outside of Prime Time. Most likely the second half of this show’s fifth season will be its swansong

Grimm NBC Fri 11/14 9 PM
Rating: 1.2 | Tot Viewers (MM): 5.0 | StD Rating: 1.3 | Target: 1.2 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It slipped a bit from last week but is still doing well enough for its timeslot. If it can stay here or better, NBC will likely let it hang in there.

Constantine NBC Fri 11/14 10 PM
Rating: 0.8 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.5 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Target: 1.2 | Cancellation Alert: Low

After a slight rebound the prior week, it took a tumble to its lowest point yet. More on this one in the analysis section below.

Z Nation Syfy Fri 11/14 10 PM
Rating: 0.5 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.5 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

This one is still delivering decent ratings and not costing Syfy much, so they have to be happy with it.

Once Upon A Time ABC Sun 11/16 8 PM
Rating: 2.4 | Tot Viewers (MM): 6.8 | StD Rating: 2.8 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show’s special two hour episode did well enough on Sunday and delivered the second highest rated scripted show on the broadcast nets for the night.

Resurrection ABC Sun 11/16 9 PM
Rating: Preempted | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

This one was preempted for the two hour Once Upon A Time ep and won’t be back until November 30th. The two week break will likely do nothing to help the show’s ratings slump.

The Walking Dead AMC Sun 11/16 9 PM
Rating: 7.3 | Tot Viewers (MM): 14.0 | StD Rating: 7.5 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

This show’s rating average is currently ahead of last season’s numbers which already represented a series high. It has become an unstoppable force.

The Originals CW Mon 11/17 8 PM
Rating: 0.7 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.4 | StD Rating: 0.7 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) It held steady with last week and is still doing well for The CW on Monday nights.

Gotham FOX Mon 11/17 8 PM
Rating: 2.3 | Tot Viewers (MM): 6.4 | StD Rating: 2.5 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) It improved one tick from last week and it is still FOX’s top-rated scripted series, so this one is holding strong.

Sleepy Hollow FOX Mon 11/17 9 PM
Rating: 1.5 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.6 | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) Its numbers remain low, but for struggling FOX they are still okay. It appears to be on track to a third season.

On the Hot Seat: The numbers for NBC’s Constantine dropped on Friday to a 0.8 rating in the 18-49 demographic and 3.5 million total viewers, putting that show’s future very much in doubt. It is now at a 1.0 ratings average season to date, which is below the 1.1 level that got Dracula cancelled last season. So is there any reason to believe that Constantine still has a chance at this point? Well, its DVR numbers for the week ending November 2nd looked good as it improved by 82%. But that still only got it to a 1.7 score based on Live+7 viewing, so I don’t know if that will cut it. As the networks have been a bit tentative at pulling the trigger on cancellations this season, I’m thinking that NBC will let the show ride for at least a few more weeks before making a determination. But unless this one gets back above a 1.0 score, I can’t see it surviving into a second year or even getting a full season pickup. And for those who may note that Hannibal made it to a third season after only averaging a 0.9 rating in the same timeslot, they should know that show has international partners contributing to the production costs which makes its cheaper for NBC. Constantine has no such arrangement and is actually a somewhat costly entry for the network. That makes its future look rather grim (though not Grimm), and I am raising it to a Medium Cancellation Alert level for now.  Keep a close watch on its numbers the next few weeks, because I believe those results will be crucial to its future.

Be sure keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week.  And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

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Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers to tune in to the episode for same day viewing

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.