Cancellation Watch: The 100 Continues to Struggle as Its Prospects Look Grim

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

On the Hot Seat: On Wednesday, The CW’s sophomore series The 100 pulled another 0.5 the rating in the 18-49 demographic with 1.7 million total viewers.  That’s its third week at that level and I don’t believe that will be good enough to keep the show going.  These last two weeks the preliminaries suggested slight better ratings with a 0.6 score, but both time the finals adjusted that back to 0.5 (for an explanation of those final ratings adjustments, go to this link).  And this past Wednesday, Arrow had a 1.1 rating in the lead-in hour meaning that The 100 lost 54% of that show’s audience in the all important 18-49 group.  It also does not look particularly good when a repeat of The Flash on Tuesday pulled a better rating (0.6).  The 100 did have slightly higher numbers with Adults 25-54 at a 0.7 score, but it was lower with Adults 18-34 pulling a 0.4 score (those two numbers are based on the preliminaries).  And losing that much of Arrow‘s audience will almost certainly get The 100 yanked from the timeslot sooner than later.  It is currently scheduled to wrap up its Fall run on December 17th, and The CW will probably let it ride until that point.  But whether it returns at mid-season remains to be seen (they have iZombie and The Messengers waiting in the wings), and it if does it will almost certainly be on Monday or Friday which will amount to a burn-off run.  Fans of the show should continue to make noise on the social nets to help bring attention to it, but I am not certain how much that will help at this point.  I am raising the show’s Cancellation Alert status to Medium, and that will continue to go higher if it does not show improvement very soon.

Following are the full ratings results (metric definitions below) for the Wednesday and Thursday shows with my comments (the Tuesday shows were repeats and preemptions due to election coverage, so I am not including them here this week). And keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news.  For more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Arrow CW Wed 11/5 8 PM
Rating: 1.1 | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.7 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

That 1.1 score is the highest number it has seen this season.  I’m behind on DVR, so not certain if there was a character cross-over driving it, but this show is still a sure bet for a fourth season.

The 100 CW Wed 11/5 9 PM
Rating: 0.5 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.7 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

The one thing this show has in its favor is that it airs on the fifth place network, so they will be patient with it for a while at least.  But if it doesn’t show noticeable improvement by the end of Fall, it will likely be a goner.

American Horror Story FX Wed 11/5 10 PM
Rating: 2.1 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.2 | StD Rating: 2.4 | Target: 1.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Not only was this the top rated cable show on Wednesday, but it also matched or beat everything on the broadcast nets that night except Survivor (which was only slightly higher at a 2.3 rating) and the CMA Awards.

Vampire Diaries CW Thu 11/6 8 PM
Rating: 0.7 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.6 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) This show is down one tick from last week, but still doing okay for a sixth season show on The CW.  I still expect it to get a shortened seventh season renewal which will be its last.

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Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers to tune in to the episode for same day viewing

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.