Cancellation Watch: Could Agents of SHIELD Make a Jump to Netflix? Plus, The 100 Continues to Struggle

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

On the Hot Seat: Agents of SHIELD saw a slight improvement this week to a 1.7 rating in the 18-49 demographic with 4.4 million total viewers, but it still has a ways to go to get off the bubble.  I’m thinking the show needs to work its way back up to where it can hold at the 2.0 level to have even a chance of being considered safe.  With those numbers and with its DVR viewing which is generally quite good and with Disney pulling for it because of its connection to the Avengers franchise, it might get a greenlight for a third season.  But if it can’t get it’s number much higher, the show may still have another option.  Apparently that Defenders series Netflix is working on is considered part of the same live action universe as the Avengers franchise, so it makes me wonder if the streaming service might take a flyer on Agents of SHIELD if ABC cuts ties with it at the end of this season.  It could be worked in to crossover with the Defenders and expand that comic universe on Netflix a little further.  The main issue, though, would be the cost.  I’m sure SHIELD has a much higher price tag than those Defenders series (considering the low-tech, less sfx-reliant characters: Daredevil, Iron Fist, Luke Cage, and Jessica Jones), so the finances may not work.  But if Disney wants to keep the show going, this may present an option if it can’t pull sufficient ratings on the broadcast network that they own.  The first of the five planned Defenders series–the Daredevil installment–is scheduled to start streaming in May of 2015, right about the time that ABC will be making a decision on the future of Agents of SHIELD (assuming they don’t make that call earlier).  If the Daredevil series does well with its initial streaming, that may be enough to convince Netflix that it is worth expanding that slate.  This is all speculation at the moment, so don’t get hopes too high.  But it seems like a potentially viable option.

Also still on the hot seat is The CW’s The 100.  The preliminary ratings for that show looked promising this week as it appeared to have improved to a 0.6 score, but the finals brought that back down to a 0.5 (queue fans of the show screaming about ratings glitches).  The series continues to get good buzz among critics and fans, though, so I am not sure why it is struggling in the ratings.  But I know that if it stays at this level, it likely won’t survive past mid-season.  The CW has plenty of shows waiting in the wings and only ten hours a week to program on Prime Time, so I can’t see them holding on to a show that is dragging down their overall numbers.  Fans of this show should start making some noise across the Social Nets (which they already are and they are very active in the Sci Fi TV Pulse Poll) to bring it some attention and maybe help improve its numbers.

Following are the full ratings results (metric definitions below) for the Tuesday thru Thursday shows with my comments. And keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news.  For more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

The Flash CW Tue 10/28 8 PM
Rating: 1.4 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.5 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show slipped one tick from last week, but it is still The CW’s highest rated show by far.  It got the full season pickup already and it’s speeding toward a second year.

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 10/28 9 PM
Rating: 1.7 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.4 | StD Rating: 1.8 | Target: 2.2 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

At least the numbers went up, if only be a tick.  But it has a ways to go yet.

Supernatural CW Tue 10/28 9 PM
Rating: 0.8 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.9 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show dropped again this week, but then it was up and down last year as well.  Expect it to rebound next week.

Forever ABC Tue 10/28 10 PM
Rating: 1.1 | Tot Viewers (MM): 5.0 | StD Rating: 1.3 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Elevated

Those are pretty low numbers, but ABC hasn’t made a move yet.  Expect them to let this one air out its initial order then fade into Cancelled TV Oblivion.

Person of Interest CBS Tue 10/28 10 PM
Rating: 1.7 | Tot Viewers (MM): 9.7 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show is up a couple of ticks from where it has been and still ranks in the top 25 in total viewers.  I believe that CBS will let it hang in there for now.

Arrow CW Wed 10/29 8 PM
Rating: 1.0 | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.5 | StD Rating: 0.9 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It improved again as it seems to be delivering a strong third season (for the fifth place network at least).  A fourth year should be in the bag (assuming The CW can remain viable).

The 100 CW Wed 10/29 9 PM
Rating: 0.5 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.5 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

The fans need to continue to make noise and bring attention to this show.  Otherwise it will follow Forever into Cancelled TV Oblivion.

American Horror Story FX Wed 10/29 10 PM
Rating: 2.3 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.5 | StD Rating: 2.5 | Target: 1.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

A slight uptick, maybe for Halloween.  But I expect this one to hold around this level throughout its fourth season.

Vampire Diaries CW Thu 10/30 8 PM
Rating: 0.7 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.6 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the Preliminaries) Back down again for this show.  More and more I am thinking that The CW will give it a shortened seventh season to wrap up its storylines then call it quits after that.

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Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers to tune in to the episode for same day viewing

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.