Since my last set of Power Rankings, we saw the first cancellation of a genre show this season, and it was an unexpected one: Syfy’s Being Human. I had that one previously tagged as Likely to Get Renewed which seemed like a safe bet considering it has averaged higher than Haven did this last Fall and it received a fifth season pickup. But apparently other factors came into play with Being Human and I will look at that in more detail in an upcoming post (and consequently, most the shows previously below it in the rankings get to move up one slot). Still, it is pretty amazing that only one show has fallen thus far and it has me rethinking several of the shows I have pegged below as On the Bubble or Likely to Get Cancelled. As I mentioned previously, it appears that bar will be dropping this season for how low a show can go in the ratings and still get renewed (and Agents of SHIELD seems to be riding very close to that bar). So for most of the shows below that I have facing an uncertain future, I will be pointing out the reasons they might get renewed instead of cancelled this time around. We are heading into the home stretch of the season with only about two months left for the current shows, so cancellation/renewal notices could come at anytime. And if they do not come before the time of the upfronts (when the networks present their schedules to the sponsors), then word should almost certainly come that week (though last year it was a few weeks after before Hannibal learned it was renewed). Following are the dates for upfront week and typically the networks release their schedule publicly shortly before their presentations:
NBC – Monday, May 12
FOX – Monday, May 12
ABC – Tuesday, May 13
CBS – Wednesday, May 14
CW – Thursday, May 15
Also since the last set of Power Rankings, The CW renewed Vampire Diaries, The Originals, Arrow, and Supernatural which I have been predicting for some time, so that was no surprise. We are now waiting to hear about the rest of that network’s genre shows which don’t look too strong at this point, and Star-Crossed actually enters the rankings as Likely to Get Cancelled. And based on its recent ratings low point, Agents of SHIELD slips to Bubble status. So now on to the Power Rankings.
Note that these rankings only look at shows currently airing (some could be on hiatus, though) or those that are returning. New series that have aired one or less episodes will not make it into the rankings yet because I have to have some sort of a sampling to make a determination of their status. And import shows like Syfy’s Lost Girl and Bitten or BBC America’s Orphan Black which are not as heavily impacted by their ratings in the States are not included here either. The rankings order the shows by those least likely to get cancelled to those most likely. The number in parenthesis is the show’s prior rank. Any non-cancelled show in its final season will be addressed separately at the bottom. You can see the full schedule for the mid-season shows at this link.
Cancellation Alert statuses from least likely to be cancelled to most likely: Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, High
Renewed or Sure to Get Renewed
1 (1) The Walking Dead (AMC) – This show continues to top all scripted programming on the broadcast and cable networks and even has beat out some high profile sports coverage like the Olympics. Consider it a lock for AMC for several more years (with a spin-off on the way).
Pros: Renewed, Strong Ratings, Strong Social Network Presence
Status: Renewed for a Fifth Season
2 (2) Game of Thrones (HBO) – This series has grown its ratings and prestige each season and now rivals the numbers of many broadcast network shows. Should stick around for the long haul.
Pros: Strong Ratings
Status: Returning for a Fourth Season
3 (3) American Horror Story (FX) – In its third season, this one has delivered its highest ratings numbers yet and has regularly scored well in the social media ranking of TV shows. It has become a huge hit for its network and has outpaced quite a number of broadcast network shows as well.
Pros: Renewed, Strong Ratings, Strong Social Network Presence
Status: Renewed for a Fourth Season
4 (4) Teen Wolf (MTV) – This show already grew its numbers last Summer and now it is continuing to hold strong against regular season competition with the second half of its third season. Plus, MTV has already renewed it for a fourth year.
Pros: Renewed, Ratings Increase Year over Year, Relative Ratings
Status: Renewed for a 4th Season
5 (5) Vampire Diaries (CW) – Still the top rated series on the fifth place broadcast network, and it has beaten out some of its timeslot competition from the Big Four networks several times this year.
Pros: Renewed, Relative Ratings, Fifth Place Network Series, Strong Social Network Presence
Cons: Declining Year over Year Ratings
Status: Renewed for a 6th Season
6 (6) Supernatural (CW) – This one may be in its ninth season, but it keeps performing well for the fifth place network. It’s tenth season is now a lock and a spin-off could be coming as well.
Pros: Renewed, Relative Ratings, Fifth Place Network Series, Strong Social Network Presence
Status: Renewed for a 10th Season
7 (7) Arrow (CW) – It’s numbers looked a bit shaky early in its second season, but it came on strong toward the end of Fall and has done decent since its mid-season return. With a Flash spin-off potentially on the way, Arrow could anchor a whole line of DC comics related shows on The CW at some point.
Pros: Renewed, Relative Ratings, Fifth Place Network Series, Strong Social Network Presence
Cons: Ratings Fluctuations
Status: Renewed for a 3rd Season
8 (8) The Originals (CW) – This spin-off series helped The CW retake Tuesdays (relatively speaking) and and is now set to coast into a second season.
Pros: Renewed, Relative Ratings, Fifth Place Network Series, Strong Social Network Presence
Status: Renewed for a 2nd Season
9 (9) Person of Interest (CBS) – The move to Tuesday at 10 PM EST hurt this show’s ratings in the 18-49 demographic, but it is still one of the most watched shows on the broadcast networks based on total viewership which holds more weight with older-skewing CBS. Plus it is a third season show.
Pros: High Total Viewership, Third Season Series
Cons: Decline in Year over Year Ratings
Cancellation Alert: Low
10 (10) Grimm (NBC) – It has gone up and down all season, but never dropped enough to cause concern. It’s still doing well for a Friday series and its a third season show as well, so it looks safe.
Pros: Relative Ratings, Third Season Series
Cons: Ratings Fluctuations
Cancellation Alert: Low
11 (11) Haven (Syfy) – Not only did this show get renewed, but it received twice its usual order of episodes for a season (26 instead of 13). Probably indicates that the series is low cost enough that Syfy would pony up the money for that many more episodes to make it more attractive to the syndication market. But then kudos to the fanbase for their strong online presence that brought attention to the show and likely helped it get renewed. Looks like the social networks could be in the process helping to change the way that network execs gauge the success of their programming.
Pros: Renewed, Low Production Costs, Renewed
Cons: Mediocre Ratings, Ratings Decline Year over Year
Status: Renewed for a 5th Season
12 (12) Sleepy Hollow (FOX) – A surprise hit early in the season, this one slipped notably in the ratings by the end of Fall. Its exit at mid-season didn’t deliver spectacular numbers either (though they weren’t terrible) so we will have to wait until next year to see if it can reclaim any sort of momentum. And the struggles for second year series The Following in Sleepy Hollow‘s timeslot do not bode well.
Pros: Renewed, Strong Ratings Early, Strong Social Network Presence
Cons: Ratings Decline in Season
Status: Renewed for a 2nd Season
13 (13) The Witches of East End (Lifetime) – It’s numbers were okay for a basic cable series and good enough to get a second year nod. But it’s definitely no Walking Dead ratings juggernaut, or even Teen Wolf for that matter.
Pros: Renewed, Relative Ratings, Strong Social Network Presence
Cons: Ratings Decline in Season
Status: Renewed for a 2nd Season
Likely to Get Renewed:
14 (14) Once Upon A Time (ABC) – This one has definitely slipped in the ratings this season, but then so have all of the broadcast net Sunday shows. It’s a third season series, so that helps. But it needs to avoid dropping off any further during the second half of the season, and that long hiatus (returns March 9th) sure isn’t helping.
Pros: Relative Ratings, Third Season Series, Strong Social Network Presence
Cons: Ratings Decline in Season, Ratings Decline Year over Year, Extended Mid-Season Hiatus
Cancellation Alert: Low
On the Bubble:
15 (16) Agents of SHIELD (ABC) – Call this a knee-jerk reaction to this show’s post-Olympics hiatus numbers, but the series brings in fan-favorite Bill Paxton and sees its numbers drop to their lowest level yet. Some people are saying this show can’t get cancelled because of the Marvel/Disney/ABC owned franchise it stems from, but its numbers are very low for such an expensive show. Can it make a late season surge?
Pros: Strong Early Ratings, Recognized Franchise, Strong Social Network Presence
Cons: Ratings Decline in Season, High Production Costs
Cancellation Alert: Moderate
16 (18) Hannibal (NBC) – It had a modest bow with its Seas0n 2 premiere, but then not terrible numbers for Friday in the 10 PM EST timeslot. Also, apparently the financing for this one makes it a cheaper series for NBC and the show has strong name recognition. Too many variables make it hard to predict this one so I’m keeping it On the Bubble and at a Moderate Cancellation Alert and will probably not touch it until the final word comes in at the end of the season (or later).
Pros: Recognized Franchise, Strong Social Network Presence
Cons: Poor Ratings, Ratings Decline in Season
Cancellation Alert: Moderate
17 (17) Helix (Syfy) – This new entry from BSG‘s Ronald Moore has continued to struggle in its first season ratings-wise, but it’s overall average of a 0.4 score in the 18-49 demo based on the overnights is the same level Haven was at and that one got renewed. It still has a chance.
Pros: Strong Early Buzz
Cons: Mediocre Ratings, Ratings Decline in Season
Cancellation Alert: Medium
18 (19) Almost Human (FOX) – Scheduling challenges and preemptions have hampered this show all season, so perhaps the FOX network execs will take that into consideration. Seems like it deserves a chance to prove itself without all the hurdles it had to overcome this season.
Pros: Good Early Start, Ratings Surges
Cons: Ratings Decline in Season, Poor Ratings, Poor Scheduling
Cancellation Alert: Medium
Likely to Get Cancelled:
19 (20) Revolution (NBC) – This show has averaged below a 1.5 rating in the 18-49 demo based on the overnights since returning at mid-season. But then that’s not much worse than NBC’s other scripted shows. And it has a vocal fanbase, so maybe they can convince the network to keep it going as a pair-up with Grimm on Fridays. Seems like a longshot, but it’s not impossible. Make some noise Revolution fans.
Pros: Relative Ratings, Strong Social Network Presence
Cons: Poor Ratings, Ratings Decline in Season, Ratings Decline Year over Year
Cancellation Alert: Elevated
20 (21) Intelligence (CBS) – Series creator Michael Seitzman tweeted that this show is not in danger of immediate cancellation. But what about when the season comes to a close? Still, with DVR numbers it has been getting its total viewership over 10 million, so that’s something. And CBS has to know Monday at 10 PM is a tough timeslot. Plus it has the star power of Josh Holloway. Could they give it a chance to prove itself next season?
Pros: Good Debut Ratings
Cons: Poor Ratings, Ratings Decline in Season, Sci Fi Averse Network
Cancellation Alert: Elevated
21 (22) The Tomorrow People (CW) – It’s numbers have continued to languish and it gets kicked to CW-disaster night Mondays pretty soon. The CW has some strong pilots in development such as Flash, iZombie, and the Supernatural spin-off, but maybe it could find its way as a mid-season fill-in for next year?
Pros: Fifth Place Network Series
Cons: Ratings Decline in Season, Mediocre Ratings
Cancellation Alert: Elevated
22 (n/a) Star-Crossed (CW) – This show seemed to be arriving essentially DOA since The CW scheduled it on Mondays which have been a disaster for that network of late. Maybe the net execs will take that into consideration and give it a tryout in another slot? Seems like a longshot at this point.
Cons: Poor Ratings
Cancellation Alert: Elevated
23 (23) The Neighbors (ABC) – Its ratings average has come up slightly since its mid-season return. And its timeslot is a tough one to draw viewers to anyway. Could ABC keep it running just to fill in a slot on the schedule on a low viewership night?
Pros: Low Ratings Expectations
Cons: Poor Ratings, Ratings Decline in Season, Ratings Decline Year over Year
Cancellation Alert: High
24 (24) Beauty and the Beast (CW) – Word is that this show plays well to the international audience and that kept Nikita alive for several seasons despite low ratings. Do they keep it going on Mondays or Fridays just to fill up schedule space on nights where The CW has struggled? We have seen that network make similar moves in the past.
Cons: Poor Ratings, Ratings Decline Year over Year
Cancellation Alert: High
25 (25) Dracula (NBC) – Yes, this show’s numbers dropped notably by the end of its run, but are they really all that bad for the Friday 10 PM EST timeslot? Especially considering the current overall struggles for the broadcast networks? If Hannibal gets renewed pulling similar numbers to Dracula, it’s not impossible that NBC could bring this one back to fill up schedule space for part of the season in rough timeslot.
Pros: Good Debut Ratings
Cons: Poor Ratings, Ratings Decline in Season
Cancellation Alert: High
26 (26) Once Upon A Time in Wonderland (ABC) – Sorry, for this one I got nothing when it comes to trying to put a positive spin on its chances. I’m surprised ABC is even bringing it back during the regular season instead of casting it to a Summer burn-off run. But then considering that network’s struggles in the Thursday 8 PM EST timeslot, maybe that essentially counts as a burn-off. On the bright side, it should live on with its parent series Once Upon A Time as padding to that one’s syndication run. And some of Wonderland‘s characters could cross over to that series as well.
Cons: Poor Ratings, Ratings Decline in Season
Cancellation Alert: High
Cancelled:
X (15) Being Human (Syfy) – The cancellation for this one came as a surprise especially considering the fact that Syfy’s Haven was renewed after averaging lower numbers. Series star Sam Witwer claimed that the decision to end the show was for artistic reasons and this was always planned as the final season. But then when did television networks ever do anything for artistic reasons? Other factors were surely involved as well, but then it did produce more episodes that the BBC version that inspired it.
Pros: Relative Ratings, Low Production Costs
Cons: Cancelled, Mediocre Ratings
Status: Cancelled
Final Season:
Nikita (CW) – It got a 4th season renewal but not enough eps for a typical domestic syndication package. That’s probably because it plays better to the overseas markets and they just wanted to give it the chance to wrap up its storylines.
New shows that have aired one or less episodes: The 100 (CW, Debuts Mar 19th), Believe (NBC, Debuts Mar 10th), From Dusk Till Dawn (El Ray, Debuts Mar 11th), Penny Dreadful (Showtime, Debuts May 11th), Resurrection (ABC, Debuts Mar 9th)
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Import shows not included in the rankings: Atlantis (UK, Airs on BBC America), Bitten (Canada, Airs on Syfy), Lost Girl (Canada, Airs on Syfy), Orphan Black (UK, Airs on BBC America)
