I have not put out a Scorecard this Fall until now because of the dearth of original programming available in this pandemic impacted season, especially scripted shows. But after about a month’s worth of numbers from the official start of the broadcast network season, I have collected enough data to offer some reasonable performance comparison info. As is to be expected the numbers are down across the board with an overall drop in ratings of 27% compared to last year’s averages (which were already down from the prior year). The network averages below are based on the same-day viewing for the 18-49 demographic for non-repeat, non-sports, non-special programming on the broadcast networks for the current season-to-date vs. the 2019-20 season.
With these numbers in mind, genre entries like neXt, Swamp Thing, and Pandora are performing below this year’s already dilapidated averages which seems to suggest that their prospects for continuing to another season are not great. But each show is really a unique case.
FOX’s AI-drama neXt has already taken the long road to the Prime Time schedule. It was originally planned as a mid-season entry last year, but its premiere date was delayed. It was looking like it might get pushed to the Summer schedule which effectively would translate into a burn-off run. But when the production shutdowns hit, FOX execs decided to hold the show until Fall realizing they would likely have a shortage of scripted programming. That seemed to improve its chances, but its numbers have been well below the network average so far with a 0.3 ratings average based on the demo vs. a network benchmark of 0.7. Not helping matters is the fact that it has already been preempted once and will get preempted next Tuesday due to election coverage. This show has been billed as an “event series”, and its performance so far hardly justifies FOX extending its run unless they are grading the ratings on a heavy curve. If fans want to see a second season, now is the time to make a Call to Action on the social networks to give it some support.
Swamp Thing was previously cancelled by the DC Universe streaming service, but there have been some hints that a successful encore run on The CW this Fall could lead to a revival of the show. It started out decent for a CW entry with a 0.2 rating for its premiere, and its season-to-date average is currently in line with the network benchmark of a 0.13 score. But that may not be quite enough because Swamp Thing is more expensive than your typical CW show and HBO Max has plans for the character in its upcoming Justice League Dark series. As much as I would love to see Matt Ryan’s Constantine team up with the muck monster on The CW, I consider it a long-shot at this point unless fans can come together and convince the network to keep it going.
Pandora, currently in its second season, is an acquisition for The CW and expectations are not as high for the show. The network is likely looking at Fall 2020 as an extended Summer season seeing as its ratings are on par with what it typically sees in those months. And Pandora is currently averaging a 0.1 rating, the same as is first season, though it did score a goose egg for its rating that past Sunday. That’s not actually a zero, but the broadcast network ratings are usually scored in tenths of a point, so the show’s actual numbers that night did not round up to 0.1 (I’m counting it as 0.04 for averaging purposes). But Sundays are particularly competitive this season and The CW prefers to renew shows rather than cancel them (and this one may also get a lift from international syndication). I would say that it still has a chance for a third season, but a Call to Action from fans could definitely give it a boost.
Below is the full Scorecard for this Fall’s broadcast network and cable channel genre shows, comparing performance to network benchmarks. I will not do a weekly Scorecard this Fall because I do not expect the rankings to change much. But I will do at least a couple more runs before the end of the year and will resume the weekly Scorecard once more shows return to the schedule in 2021.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through October 25th:
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Status |
| 1 | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.33 | 0.13 | 161.3% | Final Season |
| 2 | Fear the Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 0.41 | 0.30 | 37.8% | Renewal Possible |
| 3 | The Walking Dead World Beyond (O) | AMC | 0.34 | 0.30 | 13.3% | Renewed |
| 4 | Swamp Thing (O) | CW | 0.13 | 0.13 | 4.5% | Cancelled |
| 5 | The Outpost | CW | 0.10 | 0.13 | -21.6% | Renewed |
| 6 | Primal | ADSW | 0.19 | 0.25 | -24.0% | Renewed |
| 7 | Pandora | CW | 0.09 | 0.13 | -33.4% | Renewal Possible |
| 8 | NeXt | FOX | 0.30 | 0.70 | -57.1% | Renewal Possible |
| 9 | Star Trek Discovery (O) | CBS | 0.25 | 0.60 | -58.3% | Renewed |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
