ABC’s new sci fi drama Emergence has wrapped up its first season, and now fans will be wondering if it will be returning for a second year. It debuted back in Fall with a 0.8 rating based on same-day viewing for the 18-49 demographic, which is not a great score but also not bad for ABC during the Tuesday 10 PM EST hour. That was actually higher than what the network averaged in that hour last season. But as is typical, the ratings slacked off in subsequent weeks and the show slipped to the 0.4 ratings range towards the end of its Fall run. That’s notably below ABC’s 0.74 average for non-sports, non-special, and non-repeat programming, and I moved the show to Bubble status back in November. When it returned from hiatus in January, it improved slightly to a 0.5 rating, but then dropped precariously to a 0.3 score the next two weeks (and the season finale).
On the positive side, Emergence saw notable gains in delayed viewing in Fall, typically more than doubling its numbers and landing in the Top 25 each week based on Live+7 viewing. Below are the ratings for the show thus far comparing same day viewing to the delayed gains [UPDATE: The delayed viewing numbers will likely not help the show. More on that at this link].
| Air Date | Live+SD | Live+7 | % Gain |
| 9/24/2019 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 100% |
| 10/1/2019 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 117% |
| 10/8/2019 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 120% |
| 10/15/2019 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 120% |
| 10/29/2019 | 0.5 | n/a | n/a |
| Average | 0.6 | 1.3 | 114% |
Now the fact is that we have yet to see a clear indication that delayed viewing helps shows airing on the Big Four networks, and NBC cancelled two shows early in the season suggesting a continued focus on the same-day numbers. However, two seasons ago The Orville and The Gifted both posted moderate overnight ratings but regularly ranked in the Top 25 based on the Live+7 stats and both received second season renewals. On the other hand, just a few years back Forever aired in the very same Tuesday 10 PM timeslot on ABC to moderate same day viewing but notable delayed gains and was cancelled after a single season. The current Peak TV crunch may be putting more pressure on the networks and ABC might give Emergence more of a chance, but it is hard to say for sure.
I still consider the show to be firmly On the Bubble, but not all hope is lost. It is performing below the network’s average, but ABC currently has the second lowest ratings average among the Big Four (and it is down 20% year-over-year) and that may convince network execs to ease off from cancelling this show just yet. It was designed to only run thirteen episodes per season, so the fact that it did not get additional eps for the back half of the season is not a sign that the network has given up on the show. Ending the season pretty weak based on its same-day ratings will definitely hurt, but there is still a chance the show could survive.
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It is up to the fans at this point to show their support and convince ABC to keep this one around for another season. They should definitely make a Call to Action on the social networks to bring it more attention and prove that there is a devoted audience out there. NBC’s Timeless received a second season and a series finale when fans made a strong showing of support, and that could happen again. Streaming parties would be a good idea and episodes are available on Hulu and ABC’s website. As an added bonus, those views are not filtered by Nielsen. And fans should definitely continue to stump for the show on the social networks. Emergence still has a chance at surviving into a second season, but it definitely is relying on its fans at this point to make a case to convince the network to bring the show back for another year.
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