Cancellation Watch: The Magicians and Van Helsing Will Be Running Up Against the Five Season Wall at Syfy

As the new season begins, I have been reviewing at the cancellation rates across the television networks, last week looking at the broadcast nets and prior to that seeing if the three-season cap holds up for Netflix. Now it is time to look at the network that is allegedly dedicated to science fiction (even though it currently airs no original science fiction programming) to see what its cancellation rates are like. Syfy has offered quite a number of genre entries going back to the 2010-11 season, but few of those are still on the air. So how quick is that network to cancel its shows?

Over the past nine seasons (which represents the most prolific years of Peak TV so far), Syfy has debuted 27 new scripted shows. In that group, I am counting Canadian imports such as Continuum, Lost Girl, and Bitten because Syfy may have had some say over when they ended and they are closely associated with the network by U.S. audiences. I am not including shows like Metal Hurlant Chronicles, Sinbad, and The Almighty Johnsons which are imports that had encore runs on Syfy.

Fans were enraged when Syfy cancelled **The Expanse** after three seasons (fortunately Amazon saved it).

While the network has become notorious for cancelling shows, most recently The Expanse and Dark Matter, it has tended to give its freshman entries a chance to prove themselves. Over the past nine seasons, the cancellation rate after one year is only 33% which compares quite favorably to the broadcast nets which have a 59% cancellation rate over that same time period (53% for sci fi and fantasy shows). For those who feel like that number seems rather low, you may be thinking of more recent history. The cancellation rate for new shows on Syfy has jumped up to 79% over the past three seasons as the Peak TV crunch has been taking its toll on the network.

The cancellation rate for Syfy shows in their second season is at 19% over the past nine seasons (22% over the past three years). Fifteen percent of Syfy shows have been cancelled after their third season (0% over the past three years because so few have made it past their second season). And 11% have been cancelled after their fourth season. One third of the cable net’s shows have survived for a fourth season or more, but then they run up against a wall.

Over Syfy’s life-span, going back to when it was still the Sci Fi Channel, no scripted series has ever run longer than five seasons. Stargate: SG-1 fans will immediately point out that it ran for ten seasons, but the first five of those were on Showtime. So its tenure on the Sci Fi Channel ended after five years as did sequel series Stargate: Atlantis. Other shows that ended after five seasons include Eureka, Haven, and Warehouse 13. By all appearances, the network has a cap on its shows of five seasons max.

And getting a show to a syndication-friendly episode count does not appear to be an incentive for the network. The syndication market typically prefers 88 episodes or more for an encore run (where shows really start to turn a profit), though as few as 80 will do these days. But shows like Eureka (77 episodes) and Haven (78 episodes) ended just short of that mark even though they were still popular with the fans in their final years. Once a show gets to its fifth season or beyond, costs tend to escalate (raises for cast and crew, licensing fees, etc.), so perhaps Syfy has decided those added production costs do not justify keeping a show going beyond that point.

This is potentially bad news for returning shows like The Magicians and Van Helsing which will be facing that five-season wall pretty soon. The former series returns in early 2020 for its fifth year and it has been the top-rated show on Syfy since its second season. Seeing as the network does not have much else in the way of scripted programming available these days (only one show is currently on the Fall schedule), you would think they would want to keep this one around. But its ratings have been on the decline, and it’s possible that its current season will be its last. The Magicians will be at 65 episodes at the end of its fifth year, which still puts it two thirteen-ep seasons away from breaking the 80-ep barrier, so Syfy may not consider the syndication stretch worth the money if production costs start to escalate. One caveat is that the network’s parent company–NBCUniversal–has an ownership stake in the show and may decide to keep it going because it will share in the long-term profits (didn’t work that way for network-owned Eureka, though).

Will Syfy put a stake in **Van Helsing** after its fourth season?

Van Helsing had its fourth season debut last week with declining numbers, and its chances of surviving past a fifth season are slim. It has been a perennially low-rated show for the network, though it is much cheaper to produce. The cost factor plus a dedicated fanbase have kept it alive, but production costs could start to rise next year so Syfy could cancel the show after its the fourth season. NBCUniversal does not have an ownership stake in the show, so it does not have much incentive to keep it going, especially with the ratings where they are. At this point, I would lean toward Van Helsing ending this year, with a fifth and final season as the max it will see.

It may all be a moot point, though, because it appears that Syfy could be succumbing to the Peak TV crunch. While the ratings are down across the board with the linear networks, Syfy has been experiencing a rather steep decline and its output of scripted programming is dwindling. The network has only a handful of scripted shows scheduled for the current season and has very little beyond that in the way of original programming to offer. In fact, the network lacks much of an identity anymore. Has it given up on sci fi again? Is it all supernatural dramas now? Has it even given up on the Sharknado-type cheese-fests? Will it go back to its roots and just air older shows and movies?

As the Peak TV vice continues to apply pressure on the broadcast and cable networks, and as more and more streaming services pop up, can a network like this that has lost its way and continues to lose its viewers survive? Or does it go the way of NBCUniversal’s Chiller network which shuttered its doors back in 2017. The current season could be pivotal in deciding how much longer Syfy will be around.