IFC’s Stan Against Evil entered the Scorecard on the low side at Number 21, though that show had to go up against Game 7 of the World Series with its second season premiere last Wednesday. It may improve a bit this week, and its numbers are still okay for an IFC entry. Apart from that, there was not much movement on the Scorecard, though The Inhumans, Ghost Wars, Superstition, and The Shannara Chronicles have been moved to Cancellation Likely status. I go into that in more detail in the latest Sci Fi TV Status Report post. Here is a quick rundown on the other under-performing shows on the Scorecard starting from the bottom:
BBC America’s Dirk Gently is lower than the already low ratings it had in its first season, but its Netflix international partnership saved it last year and could do so again. FOX’s The Exorcist remains low, but that one also appears to have international partnerships (and a loyal fanbase) on its side that might help it out. ABC’s Once Upon A Time is performing poorly but ABC could continue to use that one to plug up an hour on low-viewership Fridays while padding out the show’s syndication package. CBS’ MacGyver is down 20% year over year, but it is performing about in line with the other CBS Friday shows. I will reassess that one at some point in mid-season. ABC’s Kevin (Probably) Saves the World is probably heading to the Cancellation Likely designation, but I will give it a few more weeks. Syfy’s Van Helsing will likely benefit from Ghost Wars and Superstition tanking as I mention at this link. USA’s Mr. Robot is looking pretty bad based on same day ratings, but it likely makes up some of that with digital viewing, and it still has a halo from its Emmy wins. All of these shows could benefit from a Call to Action from their fans.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through November 5th (metric definitions below):
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| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Live+7 Avg Rtg | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 4.27 | 0.50 | 754.0% | n/a | Renewal Likely |
| 2 (2) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 1.14 | 0.50 | 128.9% | 2.58 | Renewed |
| 3 (3) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.93 | 0.47 | 97.9% | 1.80 | Renewal Likely |
| 4 (4) | Outlander | Starz | 0.34 | 0.20 | 68.1% | n/a | Renewed |
| 5 (5) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.68 | 0.47 | 44.4% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 6 (6) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.65 | 0.47 | 39.0% | 1.40 | Renewal Possible |
| 7 (10) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.53 | 0.47 | 12.3% | 1.10 | Renewal Possible |
| 8 (7) | Ghosted (O) | FOX | 1.18 | 1.07 | 10.3% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 8 (8) | The Gifted (O) | FOX | 1.18 | 1.07 | 10.3% | 2.60 | Renewal Possible |
| 10 (9) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.50 | 0.47 | 7.0% | 1.00 | Renewal Possible |
| 10 (11) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.50 | 0.47 | 7.0% | 1.00 | Renewal Likely |
| 12 (12) | Z Nation | Syfy | 0.18 | 0.17 | 2.9% | 0.35 | Renewal Likely |
| 13 (13) | The Orville (O) | FOX | 1.05 | 1.07 | -1.9% | 2.35 | Renewal Possible |
| 14 (14) | Lucifer | FOX | 0.92 | 1.07 | -14.0% | 1.50 | Renewal Possible |
| 15 (15) | Gotham | FOX | 0.91 | 1.07 | -14.6% | 1.57 | Renewal Possible |
| 16 (16) | Channel Zero (O) | Syfy | 0.14 | 0.17 | -18.6% | n/a | Renewed |
| 17 (17) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 1.19 | 1.47 | -19.4% | 2.07 | Renewal Possible |
| 18 (18) | The Last Man on Earth (O) | FOX | 0.86 | 1.07 | -19.6% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 19 (19) | Mr Robot (O) | USA | 0.23 | 0.30 | -22.5% | 0.60 | Renewal Possible |
| 20 (20) | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.13 | 0.17 | -24.7% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 21 (n/a) | Stan Against Evil | IFC | 0.06 | 0.08 | -25.0% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 22 (21) | Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) | ABC | 0.78 | 1.13 | -30.9% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 23 (22) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.82 | 1.18 | -30.9% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 24 (24) | Superstition | Syfy | 0.10 | 0.17 | -41.2% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 25 (23) | Ghost Wars | Syfy | 0.10 | 0.17 | -42.4% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 26 (25) | The Inhumans (O) (F) | ABC | 0.60 | 1.13 | -46.8% | 1.30 | Cancellation Likely |
| 27 (26) | Once Upon A Time (O) (F) | ABC | 0.58 | 1.13 | -48.6% | 1.35 | On the Bubble |
| 28 (27) | The Shannara Chronicles (O) | Spike | 0.09 | 0.20 | -55.0% | 0.30 | Cancellation Likely |
| 29 (28) | The Exorcist (O) (F) | FOX | 0.44 | 1.07 | -58.9% | 0.70 | On the Bubble |
| 30 (29) | Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency | BBCA | 0.07 | 0.30 | -76.7% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers