Cancellation Watch Scorecard: The Mist and Preacher Have Okay Starts

Spike’s new series The Mist debuted with a 0.19 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic, which seems a bit light considering the level of promotion the show received.  Since I don’t have good comparative ratings data for that network, I am wagging out a benchmark of 0.20 for the cabler. That puts The Mist as slightly under-performing which feels about right at this point. But that is really just best guess, so take that and the Number 22 slot that show enters the Scorecard at with a grain of rock salt.

AMC’s Preacher returned on Sunday with a 0.58 rating based on the demo which was down from its first season average but still decent for a cable show these days.  That show starts at Number 20 in the Scorecard, though expect it to slip with it moving to Mondays and losing its lead-in from Fear the Walking Dead.  Syfy’s Blood Drive slipped a bit in the rankings (from Number 15 to Number 18) due to its ratings drop, but its still looks okay for now.  Most of the rest of the movement on the Scorecard for the week was incidental

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through June 25th (metric definitions below):

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers