Cancellation Watch: The Last Man on Earth is Still Surviving in the Ratings

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Thursday Mar 19th thru Monday Mar 23rd (analysis and metric definitions below):

Note: The Thursday broadcast network shows were covered in the previous Cancellation Watch post.

Dig USA Thu 3/19 10 PM
Rating: 0.4 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.4 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Target: 1.0 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This one remains low and it prospects for renewal continue to look slim unless it has good international financing backing it.

Grimm NBC Fri 3/20 8 PM
Rating: 1.1 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.8 | StD Rating: 1.2 | Target: 1.2 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It returned from its second hiatus at the same level as its last new episode, so at least it didn’t slip further. Now can it build some momentum as it wraps up its fourth season?

12 Monkeys Syfy Fri 3/20 9 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: -33.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.7 | StD Rating: 0.3 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It slipped back to a 0.2 score.  Syfy either has a lot of faith in this one or some international backers that are keeping it propped up.

Helix Syfy Fri 3/20 10 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.6 | StD Rating: 0.2 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Elevated

It has a slight pulse now, but will that be enough?  Is there some international money helping this one as well?

Once Upon A Time ABC Sun 3/22 8 PM
Rating: 1.8 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 5.7 | StD Rating: 2.4 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries)  It held steady with last week and tied with The Last Man on Earth as the top rated non-sports programs on the broadcast nets for Sunday.

The Walking Dead AMC Sun 3/22 9 PM
Rating: 7.0 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 13.8 | StD Rating: 7.3 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It held steady, but we will definitely see a jump with next week’s season finale.  Can it set another record, or are those days behind it?

The Last Man on Earth FOX Sun 3/22 9 PM
Rating: 1.8 | % Chng PW: +12.5% | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.3 | StD Rating: 1.9 | Target: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries)  It aired two eps and its average rating improved on last week’s numbers.  It’s still hanging in there for FOX.  (More on this one below).

The Originals (R) CW Mon 3/23 8 PM
Rating: 0.3 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.8 | StD Rating: 0.6 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Repeat. Resumes new episodes April 6th

Gotham FOX Mon 3/23 8 PM
Rating: Preempted | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 2.3 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Preempted. Resumes new episodes April 13th.

Ratings Results:  On Sunday, FOX’s The Last Man on Earth aired two episodes which averaged a 1.8 rating in the 18-49 demographic based on the overnights with 4.3 million total viewers (preliminary numbers).  That had it at a tie (with ABC’s Once Upon A Time) for the top rated non-sports program on the broadcast networks for the evening, and the show is still looking like it is on track for a second season renewal.  It’s first half hour actually pulled a 1.9 which beat the full hour numbers for Once Upon A Time.  And it did this with only have a repeat of Family Guy as its lead-in, so that’s actually rather impressive.  And when you factor in its Live+7 delayed viewing numbers for its earlier episodes, it ranks as the third highest rated genre show on the broadcast nets this season (more on that at this link).  I wouldn’t count The Last Man on Earth as a breakout hit or anything, but it’s not tanking either which is an accomplishment for the broadcast nets these days.  I still expect this one to survive into a second year, though we do have several more weeks left in the season so it can’t be considered a sure thing just yet.

I will post the results for The Returned when they are available later today or early tomorrow.  Be sure keep an eye out for that and all the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week at the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.  You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page and also the latest Sci Fi TV Power Rankings post. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

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Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

% Chng PW: The percentage change +/- for this week’s rating vs. last week’s rating.

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers (age 2+) to tune in to the episode for same day viewing.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.