The DVR Skew: Agent Carter Looks Better With Delayed Viewing Factored In

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10 years ago

Tracking the ratings for the broadcast network sci fi / fantasy shows factoring in DVR viewing up to seven days past the live broadcast (data is on a three week delay).

The overall ranking of sci fi / fantasy shows based on their ratings with Live+7 viewing factored in has not changed much from the last post, though now we have more datapoints for ABC’s Agent Carter, so I have included it. There are three episodes tracked in the numbers below (would have been four without that one preemption in January), and that show ranks in the Top 5 among genre entries. Whether that will be good enough to keep it around for a second season remains to be seen because its overnights (which the advertisers pay more attention to) have sunk pretty low of late. Galavant is also on the list this time around, though only two of its four airings made it into the list of Top 25 DVR gains, so the data may be the most reliable. I still consider it unlikely to return next year whereas Forever (which Galavant is one rung above) still as a chance.

In my previous post, I go into more detail on how much I believe the Live+7 ratings help these shows, and below the grid is more info on the metrics and methodology used to calculate the average ratings.

Rank	Prior Rank	Series	Network	Avg Over-night Rtg	Live+7 Days Tracked	Avg Live+7 Rtg	Live+7 % Gain	Cancellation Alert
1	1	Gotham	FOX	2.3	13	4.1	70.5%	Renewed
2	2	Once Upon A Time	ABC	2.6	11	3.7	45.9%	Low
3	3	Agents of SHIELD	ABC	1.7	10	3.0	76.6%	Moderate
4	4	Sleepy Hollow	FOX	1.6	14	2.7	66.1%	Moderate
5	n/a	Agent Carter	ABC	1.5	3	2.5	61.7%	Moderate
6	5	Person of Interest	CBS	1.6	10	2.5	55.0%	Low
7	6	The Flash	CW	1.5	8	2.4	66.7%	Renewed
8	7	Grimm	NBC	1.3	11	2.3	82.6%	Renewed
9	n/a	Galavant	ABC	1.3	2	2.2	51.7%	High
10	8	Forever	ABC	1.2	12	2.1	77.3%	Moderate
11	9	Resurrection	ABC	1.3	9	1.7	66.0%	High
12	11	Arrow	CW	1.0	4	1.6	66.7%	Renewed
13	10	Constantine	NBC	0.9	10	1.6	80.0%	High
14	11	Vampire Diaries	CW	0.8	10	1.4	82.1%	Renewed
15	13	Supernatural	CW	0.9	4	1.4	66.7%	Renewed
16	14	The Originals	CW	0.6	8	1.1	78.4%	Renewed
17	15	The 100	CW	0.5	7	0.9	73.0%	Renewed

Metric Definitions:

Live+7 Rating: This is the rating in the 18-49 demographic that factors in the viewing from the live broadcast plus DVR viewing up to seven days later.

Avg Overnight Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the final overnights for live broadcast.

Live+7 Days Tracked: The days that the Live+7 data was available for a show in the Live+7 Top 25 charts published by TV by The Numbers.

Avg Live+7 Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the Live+7 numbers for the Live+7 Days Tracked (see metric above).

Live+7 % Gain: The average Live+7 rating percent gain from the average overnight rating based on the Live+7 Days Tracked (see metric above). The more datapoints available in the Live+7 Days Tracked, the more accurate this will be and the closer the math will work. Shows with fewer datapoints will have larger discrepancies.

Cancellation Alert: My estimation on a show’s chances of being cancelled. The five levels from least to most likely to be cancelled are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.